From 2020 to 2030, from Copenhagen to Paris: a mindset change for the European Climate Policy? Actuelles de l'Ifri, December 2014
The European Councils of March 2007 and October 2014 have defined the major guidelines of the European climate policy for the 2010-2020 and 2020-2030 decades. These commitments have then been used as negotiation roadmaps for two major conferences on climate held under the United-Nations umbrella, in Copenhagen in 2009 and in Paris in December 2015. In both cases, the aim was, and still is, to reach a global agreement to take over the Kyoto Protocol. The first one was a failure for the European diplomacy and all hopes are now placed in the second, which may well be the last chance for the international climate talks.
After seven years, timeframes look similar but the context is very different. Domestically, the economic crisis has constrained the investment capacity of Member States and pushed competitiveness higher in the ranks of priorities. Internationally, the centre of gravity of energy demand and greenhouse gases emissions has shifted to emerging countries, advocating for an update of the North-South paradigm which had governed the Kyoto protocol. Lastly, although there is no coordinated action against global warming at this stage, the urgent need to act receives a wider support and more and more initiatives are taken, such as the ones recently announced by China and the United-States.
Because of these elements, among others, the EU cannot simply extend the approach initiated seven years ago. The European climate policy opens a new chapter and the conclusions of the European Council of October 2014 have clearly set the tone. A change of mindset may have occurred, in the sense that the 2030 targets reaffirm Europe’s commitment to the shift towards a low carbon economy, while instigating more flexibility to ensure stronger cost-effectiveness. It is a strong signal for the world but this renewed approach still needs to be consolidated, both in the way of implementing the key reforms announced and in the way of approaching the Paris conference.
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