Over the past two years, Spain has emerged as one of the most vocal countries in supporting the Palestinian cause. While Madrid initially aligned with the prevailing European position, recognizing Israel’s right to self-defense after the 7 October attacks, it soon distinguished itself from most European Union (EU) Member States by questioning and later condemning Israel’s conduct of war in Gaza.

After Albania and Denmark in 2025, it will be Armenia’s turn to host the next summit of the European Political Community (EPC). As Yerevan gets ready to welcome the leaders of more than 40 European countries, the location of the summit in the heart of the South Caucasus draws attention to the geopolitical significance of the format, launched in Prague in 2022.

China’s rapid expansion in electric vehicle production is reshaping global automotive competition for both European and Japanese automakers. Japan —a pioneer in hybrid vehicles— is struggling to translate this leadership into battery electric vehicles (BEVs), as Chinese manufacturers rapidly scale production and exports. At the same time, China’s dominance in battery manufacturing and critical mineral processing exposes upstream vulnerabilities for Japan’s automotive industry. Together, these developments create a dual challenge: intensifying downstream competition in electric vehicle (EV) markets and continued dependence on Chinese-controlled supply chains.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 20, 2026, Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, stated that "geopolitical shocks can and must serve as opportunity for Europe".

In December 2025, Germany refused to split its bidding zone despite recommendations from ENTSO-E, in order to preserve its federal unity, market liquidity, and the competitiveness of its industry, at the cost of persistent North-South imbalances.

Hamas’s terrorist attacks against Israel on October 7, 2023, killed over a thousand Israelis, altering irrevocably the way the Palestinian/Israeli conflict is viewed internationally. Australia’s government professed profound shock and disgust at Hamas’s attacks, together with its unwavering diplomatic and political support for Israel. But as Israel’s response became more concerned with exacting revenge and as the pretext to fulfill long-held ideological dreams of a Greater Israel, support from Australia became more muted and conditional. This culminated in Australia joining Britain, France, and Canada in formally recognizing a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly meeting in September 2025.

The large-scale military operation carried out by the United States (US) and Israel against Iran triggered an Iranian retaliation that resulted in the partial destruction of natural gas liquefaction infrastructure and severe disruption of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The economies of East Asia—South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan in particular—are highly exposed to this crisis due to their reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports for electricity generation.

In the Sudan conflict, the propaganda battle between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on mainstream and social media makes it hard to distinguish real, false, and manipulated information. Furthermore, the lack of field press coverage allows fake and misleading news to spread more easily. Although the SAF and RSF work hard to shape the war narrative by building large supporter networks and using various methods such as disinformation and censorship, it is clear they no longer fully control the flow of information. Social media analysis shows that Sudanese politicians, military figures, influencers, and followers weave a tangled web of exchanges filled with rivalries, lies, and propaganda.

The analysis of global imbalances faces a paradox: while the analytical focus has for decades been on the sustainability of current account deficits, out of concerns about their financial consequences, international political tensions stem mainly from enduring trade surpluses and their industrial impacts. Beyond President Trump’s outbursts, fears about the consequences of China’s trade surpluses are increasingly widespread. 

President Emmanuel Macron is touring Japan and South Korea at a time when the interests of these three countries have never been more aligned, and more broadly between Europe and East Asian democracies.

Since taking office, the Trump II administration has waged a systematic deregulation campaign targeting the tech sector in both the United States and Europe. How can Europe maintain dialogue while preserving its governance framework?

Pakistan has historically maintained the closest ties to the Taliban movement and initially viewed its return to power in Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 with considerable optimism. The bilateral relationship has since deteriorated, and the two neighbors have been caught in a cycle of escalation since last fall. In October 2025, Pakistan launched its first airstrikes on Kabul. For three weeks in February–March 2026, Afghanistan intensified ground assaults on the Pakistani side of the border as well as drone attacks on Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Pakistan, for its part, has intensified airstrikes on Afghan border areas, as well as on Kabul and Kandahar. Given the dynamics at play at the bilateral and regional levels, the prospects for a sustained return to stability appear limited.

2026 may prove to be the end of the Norwegian exception. Norway has long prided itself on the successful combination of fossil fuel extraction with a strong social democracy. 

In recent years, virtually no other Asian country has seen such a rise in prominence in German foreign policy as India.

As Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies are confronted with mounting threats to critical raw materials (CRM) supplies, resolute interventionist policies are needed to build resilient value chains. 
 

Ifri’s 2nd Paris Geoeconomic Dialogue brought together in November 2025 experts, academics, and decision-makers around six themes relating to the prospects for interdependence in an increasingly tense international environment.

French President Emmanuel Macron has unveiled his country’s new nuclear doctrine. Are the changes he has made enough to reassure France’s European partners in the current geopolitical context?

Macron’s concept of ‘forward deterrence’ offers a distinctly European approach to nuclear deterrence.

The second Trump administration’s trade policy represents a rupture with the United States’ international commitments and a seismic shock for the multilateral trade system. Its destabilizing impact has been exacerbated by China’s disproportionate trade surplus, which has doubled since the 2020 pandemic. We are entering a new era marked by the erosion of norms and their replacement by a more transactional logic. For Europe, the challenge is enormous. 

Official development assistance has collapsed since 2023, both in Europe and in the United States. This decline has affected both developing and industrialized countries. Under fire in the Global North and South, the goals and methods of development assistance must be redefined if it is to adapt to an international landscape in which the principal actors—the United States, the European Union, China, the Arab countries—are adopting new stances. 

The digital revolution is profoundly shaking up the economy, with the impact felt well beyond the digital sector itself. Indeed, it is transforming the very concept of value creation. Artificial intelligence represents a new phase that requires a colossal investment in physical infrastructure like data centers. Europe failed to grasp the scale of these changes in time, but it does have certain advantages. 

On Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron delivered a speech on France’s nuclear deterrence at the Île Longue naval base near Brest in Brittany, which hosts the country’s nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines. Such addresses are a well-established presidential ritual, typically delivered once per presidential term and receiving moderate attention. This one, however, was highly anticipated in France and abroad, given the profound geopolitical shifts since Macron’s first nuclear speech in February 2020.

Abolished in 2011, conscription returned to Germany in 2025, albeit in a new, voluntary form. The decision in 2011 was broadly supported. Public opinion, like the political sphere, is more divided now. The reintroduction of voluntary service for men reflects the demands of the geopolitical landscape and the Bundeswehr’s need for troops. It remains to be seen whether the model chosen will fulfill the requirements of defense chiefs.

The global economy has become the primary arena for the clash of power ambitions in a world where understanding, coordination, and concerted multilateralism seem to have been permanently marginalized. In this fragmented landscape, how will American and Chinese strategies interact? Will the European Union manage to break out of its decades-old framework in order to face new competition? And will it be able, like others, to integrate the announced shift from a production economy to a digital, information economy? And what role will financial institutions, and central banks in particular, play in this transitioning international economy?

Central banks have become major strategic players in international economic balances. Faced with systemic crises (2008, Covid-19), the major central banks have developed unprecedented coordination of their interventions, fostering the emergence of the “Jackson Hole consensus.”

The state election in Baden-Wuerttemberg in March 2026 will be the first major test of public opinion for Chancellor Friedrich Merz's federal government. At the same time, Baden-Wuerttemberg is one of the federal states that—as an important location for the German automotive industry and its suppliers—is particularly affected by the transformation policy driven by climate change and the international conflict constellation.

Critical Raw Material (CRM) value chains are more vulnerable than ever and entire vital industries in Europe are now at risk if supplies are not secured through strategic and urgent actions, given mounting geopolitical confrontation, resource nationalism, growing demand and limited supply increase.

The partnership between the European Union (EU) and India has long been limited to economic exchanges. Its political dimension has gradually developed, culminating in its elevation to the status of a “strategic partnership” in 2004. However, the failure of negotiations for a free-trade agreement in 2013 slowed this momentum. Since the early 2020s, in an uncertain geopolitical context, bilateral rapprochement has gained new momentum.

The Zeitenwende (historic turning point) announced by Olaf Scholz on February 27, 2022, is shifting into high gear. Financially supported by the March 2025 reform of Germany’s “debt break” and backed by a broad political and societal consensus to strengthen and modernize the Bundeswehr, Germany's military capabilities are set to rapidly increase over the coming years. Expected to assume a central role in the defense of the European continent in the context of changing transatlantic relations, Berlin’s military-political position on the continent is being radically transformed. 

The Soviet Union (USSR), and subsequently the Russian Federation as its internationally recognized legal successor, has consistently sought to play a visible role in efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House reintroduced acute uncertainty into the security commitment of the United States (U.S.) to Taiwan. Unlike President Joe Biden, who repeatedly stated the determination to defend Taiwan, President Trump refrains from commenting on the hypothetical U.S. response in the context of a cross-Strait crisis.

This report maps out the evolution of key technologies that have emerged or developed in the last 4 years of the war in Ukraine. Its goal is to derive the lessons the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) could learn to strengthen its defensive capabilities and prepare for modern war, which is large-scale and conventional in nature.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has turned her exceptional popularity into a historic political victory. The snap elections of February 8 delivered an overwhelming majority for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), driven by strong support from young voters, drawn to her iconoclastic and dynamic image, and from conservative voters reassured by her vision of national assertiveness. This popularity lays the foundation for an ambitious strategy on both the domestic and international fronts.

Europe must urgently confront a new nuclear reality. In recent years, Russia’s nuclear-backed revisionism has reintroduced nuclear coercion and the threat of nuclear escalation to the continent, underscoring the importance of credible nuclear deterrence. At the same time, Europe’s traditional reliance on US extended nuclear deterrence appears politically more fragile than at any point since the Cold War. Together, these developments require Europeans to think about their nuclear options.

The war in Ukraine has underlined the importance of multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) in modern conflict, especially a war without clear air superiority and hence a reduced potential for air-launched deep strike. In 2022, the European MLRS fleet was split between a variety of Western platforms developed at the end of the Cold War and specialized in precision strikes.
 

The report attempts to outline and examine a truly new phenomenon in Russian society, dubbed “deathonomics”—the making of a mercenary army against the backdrop of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, eventually replacing both the Soviet (conscript) and early new Russian (contract) armies. It notes that, by the end of 2023, this trend had turned the military service into one of the highest-paying professions in the country, something not seen in Russia on such a scale since the late 17th century.

The year 2025 has confirmed that one must prepare for much worse in the field of geopolitics and geoeconomics as the intensity and frequency of shocks increase and as the European Union (EU) has no more stable flanks now that crises with the United States (US) become so frequent and reveal a systemic rift. In the world, barriers to trade multiply and dependencies are weaponized.

On September 21, 2025, Canada became the 148th of 157 countries to recognize Palestine as a state. It did this with the United Kingdom (UK) and Australia, defying the United States (US) and Israeli opposition. 

Friedrich Merz’s European ambition is to turn Germany, long seen as hesitant into a leading actor within the European Union (EU). To that end, he has pledged to end the “German vote,” a phenomenon that epitomizes the paradox of a country both indispensable and frequently absent from European decision-making. 

One of the decisive strategic factors in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war is the mass use of aerial, maritime, and terrestrial autonomous capabilities, which are transforming the face of the battlefield. Nevertheless, many of these drones are still remotely piloted, operated, or supervised, testifying to the fact that the autonomization of military capabilities is still at an embryonic stage.