The Return of Geopolitical Risk - Russia, China and the United States Etudes de l'Ifri, April 2016
The year 2014 was defined by the conflict in Ukraine, the emergence of Daesh, and tensions between China and Japan. As for 2015, it has witnessed the spread of Daesh, the conflict in Yemen, the Greek crisis, revelations about the activity of the National Security Agency (NSA), the migrant crisis, and a ramping-up of terrorist attacks.
This proliferation of crises has contributed to a “return” of geopolitics, or, in other words, to power rivalries that may sound the death-knell for the kind of globalization that ignores territorial boundaries. For some, this “return” is embodied by three countries – China, Russia and Iran – and takes the form of an open challenge to the international order established at the end of the Cold War. For others, this “return” is nothing of the sort, but simply the continuation of traditional rivalries between great powers. In this regard, China and India, which are accused of “revisionism” but are integrated into the global economy, have not taken up an aggressive stance of challenging the world order, but a defensive stance, which consists of protecting their sovereignty and regional influence.
Whichever interpretation they favor, decision-makers in the public and private sectors now largely agree on the fact that the international environment has seriously and rapidly deteriorated since the financial crisis of 2008.
This paper is the product of a partnership between the Institut de l’Entreprise and Ifri.
This paper is also available in French: http://www.ifri.org/fr/publications/publications-ifri/articles-ifri/reto...