Strong states often fail to deter vastly weaker competitors. This paper explores some reasons of this failure and identifies factors that can increase the prospects that deterrence will succeed in these situations.
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Proliferation and Nonproliferation in the Early Twenty-First Century: The Permanent Five Hold the Key to Success Proliferation Papers, No. 42, Spring 2012
Since the early twenty-first century, the international nonproliferation landscape has experienced a shift from relatively steady proliferation schemes to more complex and diverse challenges. New entities are gaining access to nuclear material and among them is a growing number of non-state...
Cruise Missiles and NATO Missile Defense: Under the Radar? Proliferation Papers, No. 41, Spring 2012
The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that the threat of cruise missile proliferation is as equally challenging to NATO as the threat of ballistic missiles. Over the last two decades, the emergence of cruise missiles and UAVs as a threat has been slow, and governments, particularly the...
Dancing with the Bear: Managing Escalation in a Conflict with Russia Proliferation Papers, No. 40, Winter 2012
"Escalation", the tendency of belligerents to increase the force or breadth of their attacks to gain advantage or avoid defeat, is not a new phenomenon. Systematic thought about how to manage it, however, did not crystallize until the Cold War and the invention of nuclear weapons.
In Defense of Deterrence: the Relevance, Morality and Cost-Effectiveness of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation Papers, No. 39, Fall 2011
Since 1945, nuclear deterrence has frequently been the target of continuous criticism on strategic, legal and moral grounds. In the past five years, however, the renewed debate on nuclear disarmament has been accompanied by an increase in such criticism.
Intelligence agencies play a fundamental role in the prevention of nuclear proliferation, as they help to understand other countries' intentions and assess their technical capabilities and the nature of their nuclear activities.
Russia's Nuclear Forces: Between Disarmament and Modernization Proliferation Papers, No. 37, Spring 2011
Nuclear weapons have traditionally occupied an important place in Russia’s national security strategy. As Russia and the United States have been reducing their nuclear arsenals since the end of the Cold War, their relationship has undergone a complex transformation. Russia, however, still...
Strategic Stability in the Cold War: Lessons for Continuing Challenges Proliferation Paper, No. 36, Winter 2011
During the Cold War, the phrase “strategic stability” gained currency both as a foreign policy objective and as an apt way of describing the fact that the United States and the Soviet Union never actually went to war.
Potential Strategic Consequences of the Nuclear Energy Revival Proliferation Papers, No. 35, Summer 2010
Renewed interest throughout the globe in harnessing nuclear energy has raised concern about security threats from states and non-state actors while holding out the promise of more electricity for more people.
Chinese Perceptions of the Utility of Nuclear Weapons: Prospects and Potential Problems in Disarmament Proliferation Papers, No. 34, Spring 2010
This paper takes a careful look at China's perceptions of the role of nuclear weapons in its national security policy and defense posture.