Going beyond the numerous claims of rupture, is Trump overturning the international order and the place occupied in it by the United States?
Deterrence and Proliferation
The prospect of completely eliminating nuclear weapons seems distant. In sharp contrast with the pragmatic ambitions outlined by Barack Obama in his 2009 speech in Prague, and even more so with the hopes brought about by the fall of the Berlin Wall, nuclear weapons should no longer be perceived as the symbol of a bygone era. Nuclear disarmament also appears out of step with the deep geopolitical upheavals that characterize the current international order – redistribution of power in favor of emerging countries, uncertain future of the transatlantic relationship, territorial rivalries and destabilization of the Mediterranean region and the Middle East…
Established within Ifri’s Security Studies Center, the Deterrence and Proliferation program intends to stimulate public debate and to further our understanding of the complexity of the nuclear issue in all its dimensions: technical, regional, diplomatic and budgetary. The role of nuclear weapons in national security strategies has to be grasped in relation with shifting balances of military power at the global and regional levels, both for nuclear weapon states and potential candidates to proliferation. To this end, the Deterrence and Proliferation program publishes and circulates reports and analyses on: nuclear postures, strategies and capabilities; multilateral efforts to reduce arsenals and strengthen the non-proliferation regime; and on the development of strategic capabilities closely related to deterrence missions (conventional prompt strategic strikes and ballistic missile defense systems).
North Korea-US: How Far Will the Confrontation Go? Politique étrangère, Vol. 82, No. 4, Winter 2017-2018
Since Kim Jong-Un came to power, the North Korean regime has significantly strengthened its nuclear and ballistic capabilities.
La guerre nucléaire limitée : un renouveau stratégique américain Focus stratégique, No. 77, November 2017
Over the past few years, a debate on possible scenarios of limited nuclear weapons use has surfaced again in the United States. Russian nuclear saber-rattling since 2014 and the growing tensions in the Korean peninsula have led Washington to reassess its own ability to deter, or respond...
Over the course of the next few years, France will have to renew its nuclear arsenal to ensure that it remains a credible dissuasion in the eyes of its potential enemies.
North Korea's Nuclear Posture: An Evolving Challenge for U.S. Deterrence Proliferation Papers, No. 58, March 2017
A more capable, nuclear-armed, North Korea will pose very substantial challenges to the U.S. deterrence posture.
The NPT and the Origins of NATO’s Nuclear Sharing Arrangements Proliferation Papers, No. 57, February 2017
Russia has recently accused the United States and NATO Allies of violating the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) by arguing that NATO's nuclear sharing arrangements are not permitted under the Treaty.
The Future Middle East Strategic Balance. Conventional and Unconventional Sources of Instability Proliferation Papers, No. 56, September 2016
This paper seeks to analyze the future Middle Eastern military balance of power, in a time horizon of five to ten years.
The Challenges of Maintaining Nuclear Cultures : US and UK perspectives Proliferation Papers, No. 55, January 2016
After the world entered the nuclear age, civilian and military organizations have witnessed the slow emergence of nuclear cultures, defined as the set of values and knowledge, shared among the national security community, about the relative importance of nuclear weapons in the country’s...
Cross-Domain Coercion: The Current Russian Art of Strategy Proliferation Papers, No. 54, November 2015
This paper traces the evolution of Russian views on the art of coercion, and on the role of nuclear weapons in it, from the post-Cold War “regional nuclear deterrence” thinking to the current “Gerasimov Doctrine”.
Going Tactical: Pakistan’s Nuclear Posture and Implications for Stability Proliferation Papers, No. 53, September 2015
For decades, the Asian security environment has been characterized by multiple strategic rivalries with cascading effects.
These luncheon-debates are dedicated to corporate and individual benefactor members. By personal invitation only....
The United States Program and the Center for Security Studies at IFRI hosed Robert Litwak, Vice-President and Director of Security Studies at the Woodrow Wilson Center for a closed seminar on April 22....
Robert Litwak from the Wilson Center joined Ifri on April 22, 2015 for a seminar on the U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations. In this video, he analyzes the different views on Iran and its regime....
Robert Litwak is the Vice President for Scholars and Director of International Security Studies at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.