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Towards a European Nuclear Deterrent

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Couverture du journal Survival.
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While major European powers may have to contemplate nuclear deterrence without America, the national flexibility and European financial support required to make it feasible is currently difficult to imagine.

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For decades, the primordial fear of European NATO allies has been that America would retreat from Europe and leave them threatened by a powerful foe in close proximity – first the Soviet Union, now Russia – and dependent on their own limited ability to organise security. Not only did Europeans dread losing America’s military might, but some also felt that without its diplomatic heft to moderate internal European dynamics, the continent’s erstwhile power struggles could return. America did not retreat for almost 80 years, and it still might not. But strategic and domestic circumstances could also force US policymakers to choose between engagement or disengagement, Europe or Asia.

Were the United States to opt for disengagement, Europeans would be caught unprepared amid the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war – the largest on the continent since the Second World War – and ill-equipped to face Russia alone. In the most extreme scenario, the power vacuum would allow ambitious leaders to claim the lead, while a cacophony of divergent national calls would undermine any sense of European unity. Some could go their own way and balance against Russia, including by nuclear means. Others could bandwagon with Moscow. The end of NATO and the European Union could be nigh.

For purely self-interested reasons, of course, the US may never completely dissociate itself from European security. The Russia–Ukraine war, now in its third year, could come to an end sooner rather than later, with both sides having exhausted their military options. Given the current dynamism in world affairs, making bold and specific predictions about when and under what exact circumstances America might pivot away is a rash and futile endeavour. What matters for European security is that, due mainly to the rise of China, US imperial overstretch and rising populism in America, chances are higher today than at most points in recent European history that the continent will see some form of US pullback in the medium term. Depending on the details, Europeans might then have to reassess the role of nuclear weapons in European security.

The debate has already started, most prominently with French President Emmanuel Macron’s speeches on the European role of French nuclear forces and German politicians’ continued public musings about nuclear deterrence for Europe and Germany. If Donald Trump, who is openly disdainful of NATO and admiring of Russian President Vladimir Putin, wins the US presidential election, the issue could reach a head. Europe’s major powers – France, the United Kingdom and Germany – may be compelled to initiate formal discussions on nuclear deterrence in a post-American Europe. These anticipatory assessments of their national perceptions, policies and preferences, before the centrifugal forces of national self-interest gather, should help identify similarities and differences in their respective positions and facilitate a common European approach.

Read the full article on IISS website.

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heloise fayet

Heloïse FAYET

Intitulé du poste

Research Fellow and head of the Deterrence and Proliferation program, Security Studies Center, Ifri

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Nuclear ballistic missile submarine, in transit on the surface
Deterrence and Proliferation
Accroche centre

The conflicts in Europe, Asia and the Middle East demonstrate a return of nuclear power to the balance of power. Arsenals are being modernized and expanded, while arms control is collapsing. This research program aims to analyze these phenomena.

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 A soldier watching a sunset on an armored infantry fighting vehicle
Security Studies Center
Accroche centre

Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.

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The Future of Nuclear Proliferation after the War in Ukraine

Date de publication
16 April 2024
Accroche

In the context of deep changes to the international security environment, especially the war in Ukraine, the risks of nuclear proliferation seem quite high, especially in the Middle East and East Asia.

 
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Naval Nuclear Propulsion: The Technical and Strategic Challenges of a Restricted Technology

Date de publication
08 November 2023
Accroche

The technical and operational capabilities of naval nuclear propulsion - discretion, power, autonomy and manoeuvrability - make this technology a strategic asset for nuclear deterrence.

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The Wind Rose’s Directions: Russia’s Strategic Deterrence during the First Year of the War in Ukraine

Date de publication
28 August 2023
Accroche
Since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine, and even before February 2022, the Russian government has conducted intense nuclear rhetoric and actions.
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Arctic: Toward the End of the Exception? Strategic, Nuclear and Maritime Issues in the Region

Date de publication
26 April 2022
Accroche

Through multiple international initiatives, including the creation of the Arctic Council at the end of the Cold War in 1996, the Arctic appears to be one of the last areas of peaceful cooperation in the world. This “Arctic exception” is also devoid of any serious territorial dispute between the neighboring countries, some of which are nevertheless great powers: Russia, the United States, Canada, but also Sweden, Norway, Denmark (via Greenland), Iceland and Finland.

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Cover Survival Oct. Nov. 2024

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