North Africa and Middle East
Analysis of changing dynamics in the North Africa/Middle East region, against a backdrop of increasing security crises and their political, economic and energy consequences.
Related Subjects
Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Temptations. Lessons Learned from Regional Instability
Saudi Arabia’s integration in the international arena and regional stability, notably through reducing its dependence on fossil energies, are crucial elements for the success of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030, the Crown Prince’s top priority. However, Mohammed bin Salman’s declarations in 2018 and 2021, indicating that “if Iran develops a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible”, combined with the recent strikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, do not bode well for the future of the Kingdom, the region and the non-proliferation regime at large.
Activists Without Borders
Various associations organise trips to Israel and/or to the Palestinian Territories. Someone who has no previous knowledge of the Near East and who takes part in a journey organised by a pro-Israeli group, would return to France with a very different vision of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to that of someone who had travelled with a pro-Palestinian group.
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The Kurds: a Channel of Russian Influence in the Middle East?
With the Syrian crisis entering its fifth year, the changing security context in Syria and Iraq since the summer of 2014 has highlighted the increasingly important role played by the Kurds as a fighting force against Islamic State (IS). In a more general context of renewed Russian influence in the Middle East since the late 2000s, the development of Russo-Kurdish relations has entered a new phase since the beginning of the current decade.
Issues in the Libyan Crisis
Libya is in chaos, divided by geographic, ethnic, economic, and religious rifts, with two militia supported governments, each trying to take control of the country’s oil fields.
Israel and Hezbollah: The New Strategic Equation
After the war between Israel and Hezbollah during the summer of 2006, a deterrence strategy was established between the two parties. Occasional subsequent crises have thereby been contained and have been prevented from escalating into extensive confrontations.
Defeating Daesh: A Financial and Military Campaign
The Islamic State has considerable income, mostly from taking control of banks; managing trafficking networks – particularly hydrocarbons – and from external support.
Brazil : Coping With a Double Whammy
Brazil’s economy is currently undergoing the effects of a double whammy.
Persistence and Evolutions of the Rentier State Model in Gulf Countries
A general economic model of understanding Middle Eastern states was elaborated by political scientists around the 1980’s, based on the concept of rent as a factor of wealth around which the economic model as much as the governance of energy-rich countries was re-organized. The particular case of GCC’s countries as rentier state has been at the cornerstone of this concept since they own the most important share of energy resources in the world.
Tunisia’s Armed Forces and Democratic Transition
Having reportedly helped topple Ben Ali, the Tunisian Armed Forces enjoy substantial support from the population.
Morocco’s Growth Strategy in an Evolving International Environment
Morocco’s GDP growth has increased over the past three decades, mainly as a direct consequence of the expansion of domestic demand, triggered by an increase in both government-initiated public investment and minimum wage.
Turkey/GCC Economic Relations
Developing economic relations with GCC countries has become a consistent objective of the Turkish government since the coming in power of AKP. They have been successful in rallying part of the Turkish business community to this objective, thus building an internal social consensus towards opening to the Gulf.
Support independent French research
Ifri, a foundation recognized as being of public utility, relies largely on private donors – companies and individuals – to guarantee its sustainability and intellectual independence. Through their funding, donors help maintain the Institute's position among the world's leading think tanks. By benefiting from an internationally recognized network and expertise, donors refine their understanding of geopolitical risk and its consequences on global politics and the economy. In 2024, Ifri will support more than 70 French and foreign companies and organizations.
Related centers and programs
Governing the Urban Transition in Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa's cities are experiencing the fastest growth rates in the world. By 2050, most of the countries in the region will have made an urban transition, meaning that more than 50% of their population will live in urban areas. Urban growth is often presented as a cornerstone of the continent's socio-economic development.
To assess these challenges Ifri’s Sub-Saharan Africa Center is launching, in May 2022, a research program looking into the major socio-economic and geopolitical challenges of urban dynamics on the continent.
The program deals with urban development in Africa through a sectoral and cross-cutting approach based on three key sectors:
- Land issues are the foundation of urban life. Each urban project triggers changes within the relationship between land and its inhabitants.
- Urban infrastructure is often presented as a solution to the challenges of demographic growth in cities. However, the lack of infrastructure and its financing remains a concern for specialists.
- The mobility of goods, people and financial flows is characteristic of urban life and drives the multiple links between cities and the countryside. Analyzing the urban-rural continuum is at the heart of this program's objectives.
Research will be conducted at the macro (continental), meso (country), and micro (city/neighborhood) levels and will be promoted through events and publications.
Turkey/Middle East Program
Ifri's Turkey/Middle East Program aims to provide expertise on the trends and developments in politics, societies and economies across the region.
The programme has the following objectives:
- Proposing a new approach towards the MENA region through an analysis of local, regional, and international dynamics with the potential to guide and influence new policies.
- Highlighting the role of foreign powers which have traditionally been present in the region and analyzing the new role taken on by emerging countries ;
- Anticipating new directions and outlooks in each country.
- Interpreting risks and potentials and putting forward new templates for analysis.
The programme has built a dense network of researchers and experts who provide expertise on the MENA region and working together on a range of crosscutting themes.