North Africa and Middle East
Analysis of changing dynamics in the North Africa/Middle East region, against a backdrop of increasing security crises and their political, economic and energy consequences.
Related Subjects
Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Temptations. Lessons Learned from Regional Instability
Saudi Arabia’s integration in the international arena and regional stability, notably through reducing its dependence on fossil energies, are crucial elements for the success of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030, the Crown Prince’s top priority. However, Mohammed bin Salman’s declarations in 2018 and 2021, indicating that “if Iran develops a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible”, combined with the recent strikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, do not bode well for the future of the Kingdom, the region and the non-proliferation regime at large.
European Union Partnerships with African Countries on Migration: A Common Issue with Conflicting Interests
Since 2015 and the refugee crisis, the dialogue between the European Union (EU) and African countries on migration issues has assumed a new intensity.
General El-Sisi’s Egypt: Reaction and Revolutionary Aspirations
The Egyptian presidential election of spring 2018 will, in all likelihood, result in Abdel Fattah El-Sisi maintaining power, given the tight control over the opposition.
Saving Transatlantic Cooperation and the Iran Nuclear Deal. A View from Europe and the United States
Transatlantic differences over the future of the Iran nuclear deal – or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) of July 2015 – are damaging a nuclear accord that all parties, except the United States, see as delivering on its purpose. They also increase the risk of Washington and European capitals working at cross-purposes vis-à-vis Iran and broader regional policies. To avoid such a scenario, the E3 (France, Germany, United Kingdom)/European Union (EU) and the United States need to set up new channels of communication to avoid a transatlantic rift, to attempt – if at all possible – to preserve the Iran deal, and to secure its benefits for regional and global security.
Iraq after Daesh
Going beyond the numerous claims of rupture, is Trump overturning the international order and the place occupied in it by the United States?
Trump, un an après. Un monde à l'état de nature ?
In the week following Trump’s election, Ifri published a study to identify the likely changes in U.S. foreign policy. From the outset, this election appeared as a change in the U.S.’ trajectory, with consequences on the power relations and functioning of the international system.
Nomadic Diplomacy: The Case of Yemen
Along with Syria and Libya, Yemen is the third Arab country experiencing civil/international war, with the same consequences for diplomatic activity: because of the closure of embassies in situ and the security situation, states have had to develop a “nomadic” policy of contacts in third countries with their counterparts, according to their places of exile, which the following article designates in terms of Yemen as a test in “map-making.”
The Arctic: a Strategic Exploration
Two strategic regions are at the focus of this back-to-school issue of Politique étrangère.
A Victory to End All Victory: Iraq after the Islamic State
The offensive on Mosul against Islamic State crystallises all of the political, social and security issues which determine the future of the Iraqi state.
Three Generations of Jihadism in Iraqi Kurdistan
The aim of this report is to describe and explain how structural changes have affected three generations of jihadists in Iraqi Kurdistan: The Jihadi generation of the 1980s, that of Ansar al-Islam in the 2000s and that of the Kurds of Islamic State (ISIS) or Daesh in the 2010s.
Foreign Policy Challenges for the Next French President
France’s current presidential campaign has created an unprecedented situation fuelled by revelations and a total absence of restraint, but it has not truly taken account of the disruptions of the last year: Brexit, the attempted coup in Turkey, the election of Donald Trump, the recapturing of Aleppo by Bashar al-Assad, Xi Jinping’s declarations about “economic globalization”, or the behavior of North Korea. The debate, or rather its absence, can be looked at in two ways.
Algeria and the Crisis in Mali
The multifaceted crisis in Mali, which has effectively led to state collapse and split the country in two, has drawn international attention to Algeria’s role in the stability of the Sahel. One might expect Algeria, as the region’s preeminent military power, and one that has sought to position itself as a leader in counter-terrorism, to lead the international response to the growing chaos along its volatile southern border.
Algeria: Cosmetic Change or Actual Reform?
Algeria has emerged as something of an “exception” across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, and while the recent elections have been marred by widespread allegations of fraud, the results have effectively consolidated the regime’s grip on power thus ensuring its complete monopoly over the country’s reform process.
The Arab Revolts and Southeast Asia: What Impact and What Influence?
Southeast Asia experienced its own political upheavals well before the Arab revolts. Nevertheless, the wave of popular uprisings that shook the Middle-East and North Africa region goes far beyond the region’s boundaries, and Southeast Asia is no exception to the global crisis of confidence towards governments.
The Obama Administration and Syria: From "off the table" to on
A quick look at the news dealing with the Syrian uprising the last year shows a slow progression from protests and civil resistance towards violence. The Obama Administration’s policy dealing with what many have called “slow motion revolution” has evolved in fits and starts, with mixed episodes of confusion, assertiveness, denial and drift.
South Africa and the Arab Spring: opportunities to match diplomacy goals and strategies
This paper highlights how the Arab Spring magnified a two-dimensional gap in South Africa’s foreign policy. First that South Africa does not have a vision which reconciles demands for achieving the goals of protecting human rights, sovereignty, and multilateralism; second, that its strategies do not meet set goals. The paper then provides tentative explanations to this gap. It ends by elaborating what in the “African Awakening” and in the midst of the Arab Spring are opportunities for South Africa to overcome this gap.
Jewish Activism in the United States: Is J Street a Passing Phenomenon?
Created in the Fall of 2008, the J Street movement seeks to represent those in the U.S. Jewish community who would like Washington to be more active in supporting a lasting peace in the Middle-East.
Libya: Old or New Picture? Risks of political uncertainty for the gas and oil business
Libya has an opportunity to get back on track. The end of embargoes and sanctions after the conclusion of the “February Revolution” is favoring a fast production growth.
U.S.-Moroccan Relations: How Special?
U.S.-Moroccan ties have sometimes been described as a "special relationship." This paper explores the bilateral relationship to investigate how special it really is.
U.S. Foreign Policy and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: A View from Palestine
How will the US respond to the changing Palestinian and Arab paradigm?
U.S.-Algerian Security Cooperation and Regional Counterterrorism
This paper explores the recent evolution of security cooperation between the United States and Algeria, which have forged a strong partnership on counterterrorism despite lingering mutual distrust.
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Ifri, a foundation recognized as being of public utility, relies largely on private donors – companies and individuals – to guarantee its sustainability and intellectual independence. Through their funding, donors help maintain the Institute's position among the world's leading think tanks. By benefiting from an internationally recognized network and expertise, donors refine their understanding of geopolitical risk and its consequences on global politics and the economy. In 2024, Ifri will support more than 70 French and foreign companies and organizations.
Related centers and programs
Governing the Urban Transition in Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa's cities are experiencing the fastest growth rates in the world. By 2050, most of the countries in the region will have made an urban transition, meaning that more than 50% of their population will live in urban areas. Urban growth is often presented as a cornerstone of the continent's socio-economic development.
To assess these challenges Ifri’s Sub-Saharan Africa Center is launching, in May 2022, a research program looking into the major socio-economic and geopolitical challenges of urban dynamics on the continent.
The program deals with urban development in Africa through a sectoral and cross-cutting approach based on three key sectors:
- Land issues are the foundation of urban life. Each urban project triggers changes within the relationship between land and its inhabitants.
- Urban infrastructure is often presented as a solution to the challenges of demographic growth in cities. However, the lack of infrastructure and its financing remains a concern for specialists.
- The mobility of goods, people and financial flows is characteristic of urban life and drives the multiple links between cities and the countryside. Analyzing the urban-rural continuum is at the heart of this program's objectives.
Research will be conducted at the macro (continental), meso (country), and micro (city/neighborhood) levels and will be promoted through events and publications.
Turkey/Middle East Program
Ifri's Turkey/Middle East Program aims to provide expertise on the trends and developments in politics, societies and economies across the region.
The programme has the following objectives:
- Proposing a new approach towards the MENA region through an analysis of local, regional, and international dynamics with the potential to guide and influence new policies.
- Highlighting the role of foreign powers which have traditionally been present in the region and analyzing the new role taken on by emerging countries ;
- Anticipating new directions and outlooks in each country.
- Interpreting risks and potentials and putting forward new templates for analysis.
The programme has built a dense network of researchers and experts who provide expertise on the MENA region and working together on a range of crosscutting themes.