Since February 22, thousands and then millions of Algerians have taken to the streets every Friday to protest against the fifth term of their ailing eighty-two-year-old president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

This text was published in Politique étrangère in 1979, the year in which the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) was created.

The last four decades have witnessed the profound transformation of the very foundations of the international system: the globalization of trade, technical revolutions, the upheaval of the hierarchy of powers, the emergence of China, the explosion of the Middle-East, the mutation of conflicts and threats, climate concerns, etc.

Urbanization is a relentless trend, and as cities grow and expand, armed conflict and violence are urbanizing as well. 

Asians were dominated and sometimes humiliated by Westerners during the last two centuries. Today, they look to the future with confidence. In 2050, the world’s two leading powers are likely to be China and India. The great Asian Renaissance will lead to geopolitical upheavals. China-US tensions are already visible and conflicts may emerge between Asian powers. Yet the clash of civilizations is not inevitable.

The wars ravaging the Middle East are not destined to continue forever and the region is not condemned to being governed by autocrats. A transition to a more just order for the region’s populations is possible, but will take time. It is unlikely to happen by 2029. Progress will be gradual, pushed by civil society. New revolutions are possible, although it is not sure they will lead to greater democracy.

Real progress in diversification in some economic areas, as well as improvements in public policies, have modified the general conditions of development on the African continent since the 2000s. In politics, apart from the demands of formal representative democracy, states need to be reconstructed in order to integrate marginalized regions and develop regional and continental co-operation.

In the last 10 years, European integration has suffered several shocks. These shocks have challenged the historical narrative of the European Union, and have profoundly affected policies, as well as support by the peoples of Europe for the EU project. The real risk of disintegration can only be avoided if Member States accept to overhaul European integration, based on the idea of “civilizing globalization” and adopting corresponding policies grounded in solidarity.