Interdependence usually builds up in a context of political stability; it is a prerequisite for closer economic and financial relationships to make sense and warrant the necessary investments; it is also indispensable to make the ensuing vulnerabilities acceptable. What, then, could be the consequences of increasing tensions, when interdependence is already widespread? In other words, can interdependence persist in tense times? This overarching question was the general theme of Ifri’s 2nd Paris Geoeconomic Dialogue, a high-level conference gathering experts, academics, and decision-makers from both the private and public sectors. 

The Dialogue was structured around six themes, from emerging-economy strategies and global imbalances to the costs of economic security, the risk of financial fragmentation, industrial and technological rivalry, and the prospects for preserving at least partial trade cooperation. The objective was to combine academic analysis with practitioner perspectives to identify the trade-offs, governance bottlenecks, and actionable priorities that are likely to shape geoeconomic policy choices in the years ahead.

While the Dialogue was held under the Chatham House rule, some of the speakers accepted that a transcript of their introductory remarks be published. They appear in this study as separate, authored chapters. This introduction, written under the sole responsibility of the editors, proposes a brief summary of what we see as the main takeaways. While it is organized by main theme below, a few broader points are worth mentioning. 

Firstly, there is a widespread sense that globalization is going through a rupture, with potentially deep consequences; yet, interdependence is still very much here. The shifts in global equilibria, the emergence of new competitors, the weaponisation of trade policies changed the environment, but they did not significantly reduce interdependences at a global level. 

What did change, however, is that economic security is no longer a niche agenda. It is increasingly shaping the way all countries, big and small, think about their international economic relationships and policies, be it for trade, investment or finance. Yet, in a number of dimensions, current trends may not be sustainable for long, hence questions about the next steps and the longer-term trajectory.

Against this background, trust is more important than ever for international relations. This is true for both States and firms alike, and it requires thinking about the way trust can be built and maintained — a task made harder by the erosion of the multilateral institutions that once provided its scaffolding, and by the growing use of economic interdependence itself as a instrument of coercion.
 

This study, under the direction of Marc-Antoine Faure and Sébastien Jean, summarizes its main insights and includes edited transcripts of some of the introductory remarks made on this occasion.