The foundations of the post-1945 international order, long anchored by U.S. leadership, are shifting. Amid intensifying geopolitical rivalry, democratic backsliding, and strategic fatigue in Washington, the question arises: what if the United States no longer plays its pivotal role in international security? Simultaneously, the Global South is asserting new political and economic agency, complicating the old binaries of West vs. Rest. For Europe, this landscape is both a challenge and an inflection point.

The evolving U.S. strategic posture and the intensification of the war in Ukraine are reshaping the security landscape in Europe. This context calls for a clear assessment of the balance of power between Europe and Russia.

Turkey has entered a new phase of turbulence. The arrest of Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, on March 19, 2025, triggered a broad protest movement, which the main opposition party, the CHP, is attempting to organize. In parallel, the government continues its peace process with the PKK — a development that could profoundly reshape the country’s political landscape. These events, which underscore the fragility of Turkey’s current political balance, are expected to have far-reaching consequences for domestic governance, economic stability, social cohesion, and, by extension, the country’s foreign policy decisions.