The Belt and Road: China's "Community of Destiny" for Southeast Asia?
As a frontline zone and a pivot, Southeast Asia is both a testing ground and a showcase of China’s ambitions in developing a grand cooperative scheme. Creating mutually positive linkages is crucial for both partners, if not for the same reasons.
This paper explores the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s flagship program, on Southeast Asian States and ASEAN as an institution. The BRI is both good and mixed news for Southeast Asia. On paper, the program provides substantial economic stimulus for regional development, penalized by the absence of infrastructure, or by dilapidated ones; it should help better connect the region’s abundant natural resources, its growing markets and manufacturing hubs. Potentially, the BRI is a game-changer. Its transformative impact on economies can be paralleled with the economic stimulus created by the US and Japan in the early 1970s. What is striking is the pace of change: six years after its launching, measurable achievements can be observed. China is currently an unparalleled force for shaping Southeast Asia’s future.
However, nothing comes as free, especially considering the huge investment level. Yidai Yilu provides a branding opportunity for Chinese companies to be expansive, with smiling diplomatic presentation touting inclusiveness and “win-win”. But political, financial, ecological and/or security risks have not been sufficiently evaluated. It is leading to a mode of development with new rules of the game; new norms, regulations and practices that might not be compatible with previous standards or with the traditional opening of the region to global ones. Finally, China might be tempted to attach implicit strings and use the initiative as a convenient, yet vague, vehicle to expand its grip over the region, project itself as its “natural leader” and accelerate “a return to the center”. As the driver of major rapprochements, it could lead to decisive shifts in the alliance system; for Southeast Asia’s traditional partners, it induces ruthless, systemic competition in a context of intensifying rivalries.
Southeast Asia is central to China’s ambition to be reckoned as a global power. Beijing sees it as a key link in the connectivity chain. The region intends to capitalize on this perception to build its future. The Southeast Asian states’ position on the world stage and on trade routes is directly affected by the way they manage the densification of their connections with China and the resulting Chinese power leverage on their future; the lack of a coherent alternative and/or strong engagement for an ASEAN integration scheme might increase regional vulnerability.
Available in:
Regions and themes
ISBN / ISSN
Share
This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.
The Belt and Road: China's "Community of Destiny" for Southeast Asia?
Sophie BOISSEAU du ROCHER
Former Associate Research Fellow, Asia/Indo-Pacific Center, Ifri
Center for Asian Studies
Asia is a nerve center for multiple global economic, political and security challenges. The Center for Asian Studies provides documented expertise and a platform for discussion on Asian issues to accompany decision makers and explain and contextualize developments in the region for the sake of a larger public dialogue.
The Center's research is organized along two major axes: relations between Asia's major powers and the rest of the world; and internal economic and social dynamics of Asian countries. The Center's research focuses primarily on China, Japan, India, Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific, but also covers Southeast Asia, the Korean peninsula and the Pacific Islands.
The Centre for Asian Studies maintains close institutional links with counterpart research institutes in Europe and Asia, and its researchers regularly carry out fieldwork in the region.
The Center organizes closed-door roundtables, expert-level seminars and a number of public events, including an Annual Conference, that welcome experts from Asia, Europe and the United States. The work of Center’s researchers, as well as that of their partners, is regularly published in the Center’s electronic journal Asie.Visions.
The Oceania Factor in France’s Evolving Indo-Pacific Strategy
This paper examines the two-way relationship between France’s Indo-Pacific strategy and developments in Oceania. Oceania was not a priority in the initial years of France’s Indo-Pacific strategy, as the region was largely treated as secondary to major strategic hotspots and key partnerships, while overseas territories were primarily handled as domestic issues and recipients of a top-down strategy.
France’s View: From Diplomacy to Public-Private Action
France has emerged as the EU’s IMEC forerunner, combining port infrastructure, diplomatic alliances and public-private cooperation. With Marseille Fos at its core, the country brings a strategic hub for logistics, energy and digital connectivity to the corridor.
Trump II, the Crisis of the Rules-Based Order and Europe’s Indo-Pacific Strategy
This article examines the implications of Trump II for Europe’s engagement in the Indo-Pacific. The piece contends that Trump II is accelerating the erosion of the rules-based order and undermining the relevance of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) concept, while forcing Europe to refocus on its own continental security amid US retrenchment. Paradoxically, these very constraints create conditions for a more autonomous, pragmatic, and explicitly interest-driven European engagement in the Indo-Pacific, rather than outright withdrawal.
China and Trade in Critical Raw Materials (CRMs)
Critical raw materials (CRMs) have become central features of a new dynamic in global power politics, with China now wielding considerable leverage. Amid rising regional and global uncertainty, resource security is back in the spotlight as a key determinant of sovereignty and national security for Europe, its allies and its partners. The very survival of key, even vital industries, from automotive to aerospace to health to energy to defense, is at stake.