China’s Strategy Toward Pacific Island countries: Countering Taiwan and Western Influence
Over the past decade, China has deployed a diplomatic strategy toward the Pacific Island Countries (PICs). This strategy pursues two main objectives: countering Taiwan's diplomatic influence in the region and countering the influence of liberal democracies in what Beijing refers to as the "Global South."
Initially, Beijing adopted a cautious and discreet approach, but it shifted to a more assertive stance from 2021 onward, with varying degrees of success.
A central driver of China’s strategy is reducing Taiwan’s diplomatic presence. Beijing has successfully persuaded countries such as the Solomon Islands, Kiribati, and Nauru to switch recognition from Taipei, while pressuring PICs to limit Taiwan’s participation in regional fora. Nonetheless, resistance persists, and upcoming Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) leadership may reopen space for Taiwan.
China has also increased its military footprint through naval deployments, port calls, and security cooperation. However, the region’s logistical constraints and strong ties with Australia limit Beijing’s defense influence. Public security agreements—especially with the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu—raise concerns about political interference.
Despite China’s growing aid and presence, Australia remains the dominant development and security partner.
Amid China's growing influence in the South Pacific and the US retreat from multilateralism, the European Union (EU) has a role to play in:
- Strengthening support and coordination with Australia and New Zealand, as well as with France, to enhance maritime security, climate change resilience, and multilateral governance.
- Using European space-based assets to contribute to monitoring the Pacific region for both security and environmental outcomes.
- Supporting the G7 expansion to Australia to promote multilateralism and rules: based international order.
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