Between aging and migrations: the difficult German equation
The decision of German Chancellor Angela Merkel to welcome over one million refugees in the years 2015 and 2016 had been interpreted by some to be a strategic choice to cope with the demographic problems that Germany is facing: the expected decline in the population, especially in its work force, as well an ageing population.
However, the present study shows that immigration cannot bring an end to the ageing process that Germany has been experiencing for decades. And it is only part of the solution to labour shortage. While the shortage in German labour is mostly in intermediate to highly skilled workers, refugees primarily fall into the unskilled labour category.
Consequently, the mass influx of refugees is neither in the short nor the medium term a response to Germany’s demographic issues. Nevertheless, this does not prevent the government from increasing efforts to integrate the newly arrived into the work force in order to avoid past mistakes and facilitate economic and social integration of the refugees.
Anne Salles is Lecturer at Paris Sorbonne University, Member of SIRICE Joint Research Unit (Sorbonne-Identities, International Relations and Civilizations of Europe) and Associate Researcher at National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED).
This paper is published in French only - Anne Salles, « Entre vieillissement et migrations : la difficile équation allemande », Notes du Cerfa, n° 138, Ifri, juin 2017.
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The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) was created in 1954 by an inter-governmental agreement between the Federal Republic of Germany and France, in order to raise awareness of Germany in France and analyze Franco-German relations, including in their European and international dimensions. In its conferences and seminars, which bring together experts, political leaders, senior decision-makers and representatives of civil society from both countries, Cerfa develops the Franco-German debate and stimulates political proposals. It regularly publishes studies through two collections: Cerfa notes and studies as well as Franco-German visions.
Cerfa maintains close relations with the network of German foundations and think tanks. In addition to its research and debate activities, Cerfa promotes the emergence of a new Franco-German generation through original cooperation programs. This is how in 2021-2022, Cerfa led a program on multilateralism with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Paris. This program is aimed at young professionals from both countries interested in the issues of multilateralism in the context of their activities. It covered a wide range of themes relating to multilateralism, such as international trade, health, human rights and migration, non-proliferation and disarmament. Previously, Cerfa had participated in the Franco-German future dialogue, co-led with the DGAP from 2007 to 2020, and supported by the Robert Bosch Foundation and the Daniel Vernet group (formerly the Franco-German Reflection Group) which was founded in 2014 upon the initiative of the Genshagen Foundation.
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