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Determinants of Japan’s ODA Allocation in Africa

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The debate on emerging donors raises a question whether traditional donors really follow their own ODA (Official Development Assistance) policies or not. This paper addresses the question by investigating Japan’s adherence to its own ODA policies.

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The paper adopts a mixed method using historical analysis, statistical analysis, and case studies. The historical analysis explains that Japan’s aid implementation was influenced by latent motives such as the national interests and extrinsic motives from third parties, as well as official motives based on the ODA policies. The statistical analysis finds that Japan’s motives for aid allocations in Africa were unclear during the formative period, but that it became strategized once the ODA Charter was introduced in 1992. It also highlights that Japan became relatively responsive to the official motives and that third parties including China influenced Japan’s aid allocations in Africa during the revised Charter period from 2003. The case studies of Senegal and Cote d’Ivoire find that elections and a multi-party system increased the aid volume, while a coup decreased the volume. It also points out that Japan’s aid motives tilted toward its own national interests due to the increasing presence of China.

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Determinants of Japan’s ODA Allocation in Africa

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Subsaharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa Center
Accroche centre

Founded in 2007, Ifri's Sub-Saharan Africa center produces an in-depth analysis of the African continent and its security, geopolitical, political and socio-economic dynamics (in particular the phenomenon of urbanization). The Center aims to be both, through various publications and conferences, a space for disseminating analyzes intended for the media and the public but also a decision-making tool for political and economic actors with regard to the continent.

The center produces analyses for various organizations such as the Ministry of the Armed Forces, the Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the French Development Agency (AFD) and even for various private supports. Its researchers are regularly interviewed by parliamentary committees.

The organization of events of various formats complements the production of analyzes by bringing the different spheres of the public space (academic, political, media, economic and civil society) to meet and exchange analytical tools and visions of the continent. The Sub-Saharan Africa Center regularly welcomes political leaders from different sub-Saharan African countries.

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Gabon: Has an — Almost — Exemplary Transition Produced a New Political Model?

Date de publication
01 October 2025
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In two rounds of voting, on September 27 and October 11, 2025, the citizens of Gabon elected the members of both their local councils and the new national assembly. This marked almost the final stage of political transition, little more than two years after the coup d’état that had overthrown the more than five decades old dynastic regime of the Bongos — Omar, the father, who died in office in 2009, and then his son Ali, who is now in exile.

François GAULME Paul MELLY
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Date de publication
31 October 2025
Accroche

This study analyses the emergence of so-called “populist” political tendencies in three East African countries: Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. It builds its analysis on a wider discussion of the term “populism”, its use and applicability in (eastern) African settings before going on to examine the drivers of three cases of populism: William Ruto’s 2022 election victory in Kenya and the “Hustler Nation”; Bobi Wine’s opposition to Yoweri Museveni in Uganda; and John Magufuli highly personal style of government in Tanzania.

Peter LOCKWOOD
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The Contradictory Impacts of Western Sanctions on Economic Relations between Russia and Sub-Saharan Africa

Date de publication
28 May 2025
Accroche

How does Russia maintain economic ties with Africa despite Western sanctions? An analysis of investments, trade, and the circumvention strategies deployed by Moscow.

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The Revenue Sources Sustaining Sudan’s Civil War. Lessons for the year 2023

Date de publication
26 May 2025
Accroche

Wars require money and resources, and often, most conflicts involve controlling sources of income and supply lines or denying them to enemies. This has been the case in Sudan’s past conflicts and is again as the civil war—between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), commanded by General Abdelfattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by General Mohammed Hamdan Daglo “Hemedti” —has sunk into a protracted conflict.

Ernst Jan HOGENDOORN
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Determinants of Japan’s ODA Allocation in Africa