On May 21st 2019, Malawi will hold its tripartite elections, where voters will vote for the President, Members of Parliament and local Councillors. 2019 will also mark the 25 years of multiparty politics in Malawi since the one-party regime presided by Hastings Kamuzu Banda came to an end in...

Observatory of Central and Southern Africa

Since 2016, the Observatory of Central and Southern Africa whithin Ifri's African Studies Center provides regular analyses to identify local and regional trends regarding political and security issues in this area.
The countries covered by the Observatory are:
- For Central Africa: Angola, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Sao Tome and Principe and Rwanda;
- For Southern Africa: Botswana, Eswatini (formerly Swaziland), Lesotho, Namibia, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, as well as Madagascar, Comoros, Seychelles and Mauritius.
The Observatory coordinators collaborate with the General Directorate of International Relations and Strategy of the Ministry of the Armed Forces (DGRIS) to ensure a strategic monitoring of the area as well as to define research priorities for the reports and seminars.
The Observatory aims at assessing major political, economic and security trends in the area, analyzing their overall effects on the stability of the continent, and enabling a better understanding of the numerous rapidly evolving strategic issues in the region.
Twelve analytical reports and two seminars per year constitute the core of the Observatory's activity, which focuses mainly on the following issues:
- Resilience and the renewal of authoritarianism
- Head of States’ successions
- Governance of natural resources
- Diversification of partnerships
- New religious dynamics
- The development of organized crime
Calendar 2016
- January, Leçons de la crise burundaise, les ratés du peacebuilding démocratique, Thierry Vircoulon
- February, Réflexions sur 17 ans de présence de l'ONU en République démocratique du Congo, Marc-André Lagrange & Thierry Vircoulon
- March, La nouvelle opposition en RDC : les mouvements citoyens de la jeunesse, Habibou Bangré
- April, Les structures du pouvoir burundais
- May, Impact de l'immixtion politico-militaire sur la certification des minerais en RDC, Cyril Musila
- June, Le développement du secteur gazier en Tanzanie et au Mozambique. Les prémices de deux expériences dissymétriques, Benjamin Augé
Conference, Tuesday June 7th : Enjeux politiques et sécuritaires dans les Grands Lacs. Les cas du Burundi et de la RDC
- July, La République démocratique du Congo : de la fin de règne au règne sans fin ?, Kris Berwouts
- August, South African Local Elections 2016. From One Party Dominance to Effective Plural Democracy, Hlawulani Mkhabela
- September, L'islamisation à Madagascar, Mathieu Pellerin
- October, Histoire d’une guérilla fantôme : le(s) Front(s) de libération de l’enclave du Cabinda, Joseph Figueira Martin
- November, Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe: the Endgame?, Vittoria Moretti
- Décember, L’islam radical en RDC. Entre mythe et manipulation, Thierry Vircoulon & Jean Battory, Madagascar face la gangrène de la criminalité, Mathieu Pellerin
Calendar 2017
- January, L'opposition burundaise en exil, Thierry Vircoulon
- February, The Resurgence of Conflict in Mozambique. Ghosts from the Past and Brakes to Peaceful Democracy, Stephanie Regalia
Conference, Monday March 13th : Southern Africa : the Uncertain Future of a "Pole of Stability"
- March, Un succès économique exemplaire remis en cause : comprendre la crise financière du Mozambique, Tristan Coloma & Leslie Fauvel
- April, Du désordre comme art de gouverner. La rébellion Kamwina Nsapu, un symbole du mal congolais, Marc-André Lagrange
- May, Requiem pour un accord de paix. Réflexions sur l'actualité de l'Accord d'Arusha et la révision constitutionnelle au Burundi, Laurent-Désiré Sahinguvu & Thierry Vircoulon
- June, Zimbabwe in Dubious Battle.The Unexpected Consequences of Western Sanctions, Vittoria Moretti
- July, La crise congolaise vue d'une capitale provinciale : en attendant les élections à Bukavu, Justin Mwetaminwa
- August, Is South Africa at Risk? A Political Economy Analysis, Nicolas Pons-Vignon
- September, Poursuivre ou ne pas poursuivre. La politique controversée de réconciliation après la Comission Vérité et Réconciliation en Afrique du Sud, Liliane Umbyeyi
- October, Efficacité des médiations de la Communauté de Développement de l’Afrique australe (SADC) : bilan et leçons (2012-2017), Thibaud Kurtz
Conference, Thursday October 19th : L'impact des sanctions internationales en Afrique
- November, Angola under Lourenço: Towards a Negotiated Hegemony, Mathias de Alencastro
- December, 2017, une année non électorale. Cartographie analytique des "points chauds" de la RDC, Jean Battory & Thierry Vircoulon
Calendar 2018
- January, L'armée entre en scène politique au Zimbabwe. Coup de théâtre ou théâtre sans fin ?, Victor Magnani
- February, L'arme de la communication dans la crise burundaise, Thierry Vircoulon
- March, L'Eglise en République démocratique du Congo (encore) face au pouvoir, Laurent Larcher
Conference, Thursday April 26th : Angola : from Dos Santos to Lourenço, Unexpected Transition, Lasting Transformation?
- April, La République démocratique du Congo face au défi démographique, Roland Pourtier
- May, Corruption, Ethnicity and Violence as a Triple Political Strategy. The Changing Face of Politics in Zambia, Lee M. Habasonda
- June, Botswana : Quels défis pour la présidence Masisi ?, Thibaud Kurtz
- July, Les élections 2018 au Zimbabwe. radiographie d'un Etat fracturé, Victor Magnani & Thierry Vircoulon
- August, Malawi: The Road to the 2019 Tripartite Elections – Reflections on Corruption, Land and Multiparty Politics, Stephanie Regalia
- September, La province du Sud Kivu : un champ de bataille multidimensionnel méconnu, Jean Battory & Thierry Vircoulon
- October, Les reconfigurations de l’autoritarisme en Tanzanie, Cyrielle Maingraud
- November, Enjeux politiques et économiques de la réforme agraire et foncière en Afrique du Sud, Cécile Perrot
- Décember, Mutation du secteur minier au Burundi. Du développement à la captation, Thierry Vircoulon
Calendar 2019
- May, RDC : La cohabitation insolite, Thierry Vircoulon
- June, Panorama de la presse centrafricaine. Entre pauvreté et politique d'influence, Saber Jendoubi
- July, Du président populaire au président sacré. La sacralisation de la figure présidentielle au Burundi, Lior Fagnots
- September, Le conflit anglophone au Cameroun. Un dialogue sans partenaires, Cynthia Petrigh
- October, Conflit et transformations du commerce en RCA, Mathilde Tarif
- November, Analyse de la Force de défense nationale burundaise (FNDB)
- Décember, Les pouvoirs coutumiers en RDC, Jean Battory & Thierry Vircoulon
Calendar 2020
- January, The Fall-Out from the Mozambican ‘Secret Loans’ Scandal, Simone Haysom
Conference, Thursday January 23rd : Le Mozambique en crises

Associate Resarch Fellow, African Studies Center
...Former Project Officer, African Studies Center
...Recently, Zambian politics have been changing in a pretty checkered manner. The threat of corruption, political violence and ethnic-politics has been growing since the ruling Patriotic Front Party (PF) assumed power in 2011.
In a matter of months, Luanda politics became unrecognizable. The reasons why, and the ways in which, João Lourenço, President of Angola since september 2017, proceeded to these substantial and unexpected changes will be analyzed in detail in the pages that follow.
The aim of this paper is to assess how an African country deals on the long run with the decline of international aid and foreign direct investment. This paper is a contribution to the debate about the effectiveness of the international sanctions system.
2016 proved to be a most challenging year for Mozambique. Small-scale conflict, which started reappearing between the government and the opposition party, the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo), in 2013, intensified over the course of the year, whilst peace negotiations stalled. ...
The descent into the morass of failure seems relentless for a country that used to be, at the aftermath of its independence in 1980, the “jewel in Africa” to be carefully preserved, as former Tanzanian President Julius Nyerere advised an acclaimed Mugabe ascending into power.
The South African political landscape experienced a shock from an unlikely source; the country’s local government elections on August 3, 2016 representing the last tier of government and often overlooked in favour of national and provincial polls.
Angola : from Dos Santos to Lourenço, Unexpected Transition, Lasting Transformation?
As part of the Observatoire of Southern Africa and the African Great Lakes, Ifri organizes this conference on Angola in collaboration with the Directorate General for International Relations and Strategy of the...
Southern Africa: the Uncertain Future of a "Pole of Stability"
In the framework of the Observatoire of Southern Africa and the African Great Lakes, Ifri co-organizes this conference on Southern Africa with the Directorate General for International Relations and Strategy ...
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