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Impossible Decoupling, Improbable Cooperation: Economic Interdependencies in the Face of Power Rivalries

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Export restrictions, economic and financial sanctions, politicization of monetary and financial choices, screening of inward and outward foreign direct investments, exceptional customs duties, and state interventions in sectors deemed strategic: the political vise is tightening around international economic and financial relations.

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This shift is the result of economic transformations as well as political and ideological ambitions. Economic and financial interdependencies remain very close, but they are increasingly constrained by power rivalries.

“Geoeconomics” remains, to the extent that economic logic still entails both mutually beneficial exchanges and often conflicting state interests. But it is becoming more complex, moving towards a logic that can be described as “geofinance”: the simultaneous politicization of financial and information flows shows that the objectives, tools, and support points of these interactions are profoundly transformed.

The increasing weaponization of interdependencies illustrates these trends: political rivalry motivates it, the challenge of climate change redefines the stakes, the intensity of interdependencies increases the potential consequences, growing complexity creates favorable backgrounds, the dematerialization of productive capital fuels non-cooperative state strategies and often makes interdependencies inextricable.

This upheaval gives a new security dimension to international economic policies. Economic security is becoming omnipresent in international relations, but the approaches and consequences of this common concern differ widely.

 

Thomas Gomart, Director of Ifri.
Sébastien Jean is professor of economics at Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers (Paris), where he holds the chair Jean-Baptiste Say d’économie industrielle. He is also Associate Director with Ifri, where he is in charge of the “Geoeconomics and Geofinance” initiative.

 

This study is also available in French : "Découplage impossible, coopération improbable. Les interdépendances économiques à l’épreuve des rivalités de puissance".

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979-10-373-0768-2

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Impossible Decoupling, Improbable Cooperation: Economic Interdependencies in the Face of Power Rivalries

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Author(s)
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Thomas GOMART

Thomas GOMART

Intitulé du poste

Director of Ifri

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Sébastien JEAN

Sébastien JEAN

Intitulé du poste

Associate Director of Ifri's Geoeconomics and Geofinance initiative

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Geoeconomics and Geofinance Initiative
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To analyze the impact of power rivalries and tensions on globalization, this initiative combines economic and political expertise. In the face of growing geopolitical risk, the goal is to decipher the dynamics of reconfiguration: protectionist pressures, sanctions, restrictions, industrial policies, and economic security concerns are redefining the rules of international trade. These tensions are also transforming international financial relations by undermining the foundations of trust and reshaping the global monetary system. They raise questions about the role of several key players: sovereign wealth funds, central banks, digital platforms, multilateral institutions, and financial infrastructure operators. In a context of profound disruption, simply refining existing approaches is no longer sufficient. The initiative is designed as a flexible model, drawing on diverse expertise to offer both broad overviews and targeted analyses. It also provides a platform for stakeholders and experts from various backgrounds to debate these issues freely.

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Accroche

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Date de publication
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Accroche

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Date de publication
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Accroche

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Impossible Decoupling, Improbable Cooperation: Economic Interdependencies in the Face of Power Rivalries