The Africas of 2029
Real progress in diversification in some economic areas, as well as improvements in public policies, have modified the general conditions of development on the African continent since the 2000s. In politics, apart from the demands of formal representative democracy, states need to be reconstructed in order to integrate marginalized regions and develop regional and continental co-operation.
The economic dimension
The starting point for the development of African economies, typical of the 1990s, was a dual economy. In this system, the intensive extraction of raw materials attracted the majority of investment in terms of financial, technological, and human capital, and existed alongside an extensive, informal, and essentially agricultural sector, which provided the majority of jobs for a young and impoverished population. Structural adjustment plans, the breakdown of or reduction in public services, the AIDS epidemic, political instability, and precarious security contexts combined to give the 1990s the rather unflattering sobriquet of the “lost decade.”
The 2000s have marked a turning point in terms of growth. Although this growth is mostly due to an improved international context and is strongly influenced by China’s demand for raw materials (which has reached an historic high), the “African emergence” has been accompanied by major qualitative changes.
Limited diversification
Although it is not widespread, we can detect a trickle-down effect, as a growth in national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is accompanied by an improvement in middle-class income levels. The continent is now seen as a “frontier market,” which gives many economic players greater confidence. Most of this new prosperity is shared between the leading companies in four major economic sectors: large agri-food groups, logistics firms, large telecommunications operators, and financial services.
Unlike investments in the extractive industries, these new foreign direct investments (FDI), are distinctive in that they create local employment and contribute to creating new opportunities for entrepreneurship in formal and informal sectors. They therefore contribute to feeding a virtuous circle of economic growth. However, these sectors also enable an increased appropriation of income generated in the informal sectors of these economies. […]
The restoration of public policy in the economy
Strong growth – along with changes in the ideological position of international financial institutions and development agencies, which are softening their ultra-liberal foundations – is increasingly restoring the role of public investment. […]
OUTLINE
- The economic dimension
- Limited diversification
- The restoration of public policy in the economy
- An enlarged portfolio of strategic allegiances
- Beyond the liberal paradigm? - The socio-political dimension
- Democracy: A reality or an illusion?
- Security challenges and territorial sovereignty
- The social roots of anomie
- Regional integration and cooperation
- Legitimizing strong states - Environmental and socio-cultural dimensions
- A lack of environmental concern
- Different forms of cross-cultural values
- The resurgence of religion - Two scenarios in ten years’ time
- A scenario based on current trends
- An optimistic scenario
Alioune Sall is Professor at Cheikh Anta Diop University, Dakar (Senegal) and Former Judge at the ECOWAS Court of Justice.
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The Africas of 2029
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