The Crises Testing Arms Control
The arms control system built during and after the Cold War is under enormous stress and is fraying at the edges. It once enabled significant improvements in international security but is in danger of not withstanding the resurgence of tensions in recent years. Urgent action is now needed to prevent the proliferation of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, as well as cluster bombs and anti-personnel mines.
The events of recent years have opened a pause for reflection on the role that arms control has played in the wider effort of international, collective security over the last 80 years.
In the context of Russia’s brutal land-grab war against Ukraine since 2022 and yet another horrendous conflict in the Middle East, the shocking United States (US) pull-back from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the United Nations (UN), including the proposals of invading Greenland and Canada, has increased an already high sense of insecurity and fears of conflict escalation throughout the world.
In January 2026, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Doomsday Clock was moved forward by 4 seconds to 85 seconds before midnight. An indication of global risks in terms of nuclear war, climate change and other global threats, including pandemics. The ticking Doomsday Clock also reflects the reduced restraints in arms control, nonproliferation and disarmament agreements. [...]
Article Outline
- The Response
- The Importance of Arms Control
- The Humanitarian Strand
- The International Security Strand
- Added Benefits of Arms Control Allies
- The Risks of Further Proliferation
- The Rupture
- The Reframe
Patricia M. Lewis has served as Director of the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) and as a Research Fellow at Chatham House.
Article published in Politique étrangère, Vol. 91, No. 2, 2026.
Available in:
Themes and regions
Share
This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.
The Crises Testing Arms Control
Iran: Anatomy of a Power at War
The elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several high-ranking officials at the outset of the 2026 American-Israeli operation did not succeed in bringing down the Iranian regime. The regime had prepared for such a scenario, notably by decentralizing its structures. Moreover, it continues to adapt to war. The power of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is growing at the expense of the Shiite clergy. The security apparatus defends the country’s sovereignty and justifies its actions in the name of raison d’état.
“Remodeling” the Middle East?
Chaos continues to spread, seemingly without end, across the Middle East. The Israeli-American attack on Iran has resulted in a clear military and diplomatic failure, but it is paving the way for a regional realignment, the consequences of which remain uncertain. New regional groupings are taking shape, either centered around Israel or built on the prospect of coexistence with Tehran, alongside a decline in American influence and the marginalization of Europe, while China maintains a low-key presence.
Silicon Valley and War: Lessons from Ukraine
Over the course of international conflicts, and particularly in Ukraine, major tech companies have emerged as central actors. Initially subject to wartime maneuvering, they have since become decisive actors in their own right, privatizing a significant share of wartime exchanges, shaping the information flows of societies, and presenting themselves as providers of security. This situation raises important questions about states’ autonomy in making decisions and taking action.
Does Artificial Intelligence Change the Nature of War?
From Gaza to Ukraine and Iran, current conflicts are being shaped by the arrival of artificial intelligence and robots on the battlefield. The changes under way are so profound that humans risk rapidly losing control over entire aspects of the conduct of military operations. While these technological developments are altering the character of war, their impact on the very nature of war itself remains a matter of debate.