From Trump to Xi Jinping: Globalization's Great Rupture
The second Trump administration’s trade policy represents a rupture with the United States’ international commitments and a seismic shock for the multilateral trade system. Its destabilizing impact has been exacerbated by China’s disproportionate trade surplus, which has doubled since the 2020 pandemic. We are entering a new era marked by the erosion of norms and their replacement by a more transactional logic. For Europe, the challenge is enormous.
Sébastien Jean is professor of economics at Conservatoire national des arts et métiers (CNAM) and a Associate Director of Ifri’s Geoeconomics and Geofinance initiative.
This article is only available in French and published in Politique étrangère, Vol. 91, No. 1, 2026.
Available in:
Themes and regions
Share
Author(s)
Sébastien JEAN
Associate Director of Ifri's Geoeconomics and Geofinance initiative
Find out more
Discover all our analyses
A New Path for Europe
The construction of the European Union is historically inseparable from the emergence, at the end of World War II, of an Atlantic world dominated by the United States. Successive enlargements and the revision of U.S. policy are undermining the concepts upon which the European Union has been built since the fall of the USSR. It is undoubtedly time to return to a path of more diverse groupings, corresponding to the levels of commitment and the interests of the states of the Old Continent.
How Technology Is Reshaping the World Order
The central role of technology in the competition between the major powers is fueling an ever-more intense rivalry. Artificial intelligence is enabling large corporations to accrue unprecedented power, with consequences for states and even for international conflict. However, states do have tools at their disposal to regulate these developments. In this international competition, Europe has a strong hand, but must be prepared to play its cards in order to create a new kind of international cooperation.
Reflections on A Darkening World
The system that emerged after the Second World War to regulate international relations is now moribund. Russia and China may have weakened it, but it seems that Donald Trump’s United States may deliver the fatal blow. The prevailing atmosphere is one of power struggles, and the rise of nationalisms is fraught with danger. The artificial intelligence revolution also needs to be factored into this equation, as it has a strong bearing on how much power different players can exert. In this respect, Europe must ensure it does not get left behind.
1936-2026: 90th Anniversary of the Journal "Politique étrangère"
Founded in 1936 and published by the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), Politique étrangère, France’s longest-running journal of international relations, is set to publish a special issue in early June 2026. Bringing together distinguished French and international contributors, this issue aims to provide an overview of an uncertain world and its possible futures. In an unprecedented undertaking, Politique étrangère brings together a wide range of international contributions in an effort to grasp a global landscape that is at once open and fragmented, in all its diversity and dynamism. Through in-depth analyses of cross-cutting challenges, reflections on methods and structures of governance, and projections into futures feared or envisioned by creators from around the world—ranging from alternative histories to speculative thought experiments—the various approaches complement and challenge one another, opening up broad avenues for reflection.