With the development of increasingly sophisticated yet accessible cyber technology, boundaries are blurring between formerly discrete categories of international political interaction, requiring a reframing of the potential avenues for interstate conflict. Most importantly, states can no longer afford to view physical and digital landscapes as separate. The implications of cyber technology have introduced new threats, necessitating a far more holistic approach to security. In particular, technology has expanded the parameters of traditional warfare, enabling and empowering the individual with the ability to affect the stability of states and the broader system.
 

This article opts to focus more specifically on influence operations, including disinformation, because this offers the best lens through which to explore the question of how technology is affecting geopolitics. Influence operations, amplified by the power of cyber, are increasingly proving to present novel effects on international interaction. These effects are substantial, yet subtle, and are proving far more difficult to counteract than traditional forms of cyber warfare. Further, the intended target is the psyche of the nation’s citizenry, creating unprecedented challenges for governments.
 

Over the last half century, cyber warfare has reshaped the nature of international conflict and security. The low cost and attribution challenges of offensive action conducted through cyberspace have emboldened both state and non-state actors. Traditional kinetic warfare has relied upon conventional weapons and targets, which typically constitute the opponent’s military, such as destruction of infrastructure and the occupation of a physical space. This has meant that battlefield tactics are developed for contexts of engagement between two or more states in open confrontation. However, the introduction of novel cyber and digital techniques has enabled the pursuit of new objectives, which alter what it means to control a space or effectively win in a conflict.
 

The primary targets of the cyber toolkit – which include (but are not limited to) tactics such as hacking, malicious software (malware) and denial-of-service (DoS) attacks – have been the penetration, damage and disruption of computers and networks. […]

OUTLINE

• Technology and the activation of the individual
• Comprehensive security
• Technology trends
• Impact analysis
  - International relations
  - Domestic governance
• Conflict and War

Jared Cohen is President of Jigsaw, an incubator created by Google to develop technologies that "improve the security of people around the world". He is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and has worked on the State Department's Policy Planning Staff.