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Wars in the Next Decade
Forecasting in areas of strategy is particularly delicate as predictions may impact the course of events. While several major trends in the evolution of conflicts during the next decade can be identified, precise forecasts are impossible. Yet one thing is certain: in the next 10 years, decision-makers face unknown risks of significant consequence.
After the Demographic Explosion
Demographic forecasting is not an exact science. UN projections, which suggest that the world population may rise to 11.2 billion in 2100, could be overestimates. Indeed, fertility could fall more rapidly and life expectancy may rise less than expected. The Sahel is set to experience the most spectacular demographic explosion, but this will not necessarily lead to massive migration to Europe.
Does International Commerce Help Foster Peace?
Montesquieu’s theory of “doux commerce” has never ceased to be debated.
The Legacy of the Great War: Sovereign States, Globalization and Regionalism
The Great War has shaped many 20th century practices and norms.
World War I, in Theory
The First World War gave rise to the emergence of the discipline of international relations, but it was the Second World War and the Cold War that fostered its development.
The "International System": Approachs and Dynamics
Thierry de Montbrial
Theory and Practice of International Relations since the End of the Cold War
Wars in the Next Decade
Forecasting in areas of strategy is particularly delicate as predictions may impact the course of events. While several major trends in the evolution of conflicts during the next decade can be identified, precise forecasts are impossible. Yet one thing is certain: in the next 10 years, decision-makers face unknown risks of significant consequence.
After the Demographic Explosion
Demographic forecasting is not an exact science. UN projections, which suggest that the world population may rise to 11.2 billion in 2100, could be overestimates. Indeed, fertility could fall more rapidly and life expectancy may rise less than expected. The Sahel is set to experience the most spectacular demographic explosion, but this will not necessarily lead to massive migration to Europe.
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