Possible Energy Transitions through 2029
Renewable energies are experiencing rapid growth, due not only to their limited impact on the environment but also to shrinking costs. To fight climate change, new investments in low carbon technologies are necessary. Apart from its positive aspects, the energy transition carries risks, notably geopolitical. The notion of energy security will be profoundly modified. These risks can be anticipated and managed.
The world has embarked on an energy transition that entails fundamental change in the social, economic and environmental spheres of human society. Public and private actors worldwide are increasingly engaged in the dynamics of this transition which is set to accelerate as global ambitions to combat climate change and to advance sustainable development require the rapid decarbonization of energy. These changes will also profoundly affect geopolitics, as they will have implications for the global distribution of power, relations between countries, the risk of conflict, and global stability. While the potential benefits of the transition clearly outweigh the risks overall, governments and industries need to revaluate their situation and outlook in the new world that is evolving. They have to try to steer their way to economic growth and a sustainable future, while navigating the disruption that a fast-moving transition may bring.
The energy transition
The speed of the on-going energy transition and its fundamental impact on the shape of global energy systems exceeds all expectations. Ten years ago, there was still widespread doubt that renewables were a viable and reliable source of energy that could power economies and meet growing energy demand. Instead, the prevailing perception was that renewables were a luxury which only a few industrialized countries could afford. In fact, most of the energy scenarios and projections considerably and consistently underestimated the growth potential of renewables.
But the pace of developments in the growth of renewables in the global energy mix in the last ten years leaves today little doubt about their enormous potential. Globally, the total installed renewable electricity capacity now stands at 2,179 GW, and in terms of generation, at approximately 6,000 TWh, which is about 23 percent of global electricity production. In 2017, 167 GW of additional renewable energy generation capacity was installed, which represents 70 percent of all new capacity, and more than double that of fossil fuels. One of the main drivers for this energy transition is that the business case for renewables keeps getting stronger. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for solar photovoltaics has fallen by more than 73 percent since 2010, and the cost of electricity from onshore wind has fallen by more than 23 percent. IRENA analysis estimates that by 2020, all renewable energy technologies currently in commercial use will be cost-competitive with fossil-fuels in most parts of the world, and even undercut them significantly in many cases. […]
OUTLINE
- The energy transition
- Energy transition in the next decades
- The geopolitics of energy transition
Adnan Z. Amin is Director General of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in Abu Dhabi.
Available in:
Themes and regions
Share
Download the full analysis
This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.
Possible Energy Transitions through 2029
Author(s)
Find out more
Discover all our analyses
A New Path for Europe
The construction of the European Union is historically inseparable from the emergence, at the end of World War II, of an Atlantic world dominated by the United States. Successive enlargements and the revision of U.S. policy are undermining the concepts upon which the European Union has been built since the fall of the USSR. It is undoubtedly time to return to a path of more diverse groupings, corresponding to the levels of commitment and the interests of the states of the Old Continent.
How Technology Is Reshaping the World Order
The central role of technology in the competition between the major powers is fueling an ever-more intense rivalry. Artificial intelligence is enabling large corporations to accrue unprecedented power, with consequences for states and even for international conflict. However, states do have tools at their disposal to regulate these developments. In this international competition, Europe has a strong hand, but must be prepared to play its cards in order to create a new kind of international cooperation.
Reflections on A Darkening World
The system that emerged after the Second World War to regulate international relations is now moribund. Russia and China may have weakened it, but it seems that Donald Trump’s United States may deliver the fatal blow. The prevailing atmosphere is one of power struggles, and the rise of nationalisms is fraught with danger. The artificial intelligence revolution also needs to be factored into this equation, as it has a strong bearing on how much power different players can exert. In this respect, Europe must ensure it does not get left behind.
1936-2026: 90th Anniversary of the Journal "Politique étrangère"
Founded in 1936 and published by the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), Politique étrangère, France’s longest-running journal of international relations, is set to publish a special issue in early June 2026. Bringing together distinguished French and international contributors, this issue aims to provide an overview of an uncertain world and its possible futures. In an unprecedented undertaking, Politique étrangère brings together a wide range of international contributions in an effort to grasp a global landscape that is at once open and fragmented, in all its diversity and dynamism. Through in-depth analyses of cross-cutting challenges, reflections on methods and structures of governance, and projections into futures feared or envisioned by creators from around the world—ranging from alternative histories to speculative thought experiments—the various approaches complement and challenge one another, opening up broad avenues for reflection.