The Ifri Center for Energy held its annual conference in Brussels on March 4th, 2015. The event gathered more than 150 participants, together with prominent policy makers, industry leaders and distinguished academics to discuss how the European energy policy can deliver effective results in light of geopolitical upheavals, technological developments and governance issues.

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The sea route between Europe and Asia is significantly shorter via Arctic waters than via the Suez Canal. Changes in global climate have resulted in a diminishing of ice in Arctic waters. This has resulted in the Northern Sea Route establishing itself as a viable commercial alternative, which is expected to expand in the years ahead. Satellite observation is one of the methods employed to gather information about ice conditions, weather and oil spills, and is a prerequisite for ensuring the continued development of the new traffic.

Defending and renewing the global order is a priority for the United States and Europe. An important part of this effort will be accomplished if transatlantic partners can successfully engage four “global swing states” — Brazil, India, Indonesia and Turkey — in the management of global issues, because of their geopolitical and economic status, as well as their desire to have a stronger voice in the various international forums. Successful engagement of these nations will be key to preserving the international order and U.S. leadership.

The US shale gas revolution has shaken global gas markets. The US is on the eve of becoming self-sufficient in natural gas (and oil), thanks to the massive discoveries of unconventional resources on their territory, while being able to export part of their production. These developments have been closely watched by traditional oil and gas producers.

With the approach of the 2014 deadline for the completion of a truly European liberalized energy market, there is growing concern on the adequacy of the market structure with the changed economic and geopolitical environment. Market-based and short-term approaches have been fostered for both gas and electricity markets. Energy and climate policies have therefore a primary function in designing the basic rules for these markets to develop.

In an effort to preserve its global leadership, the United States has engaged in a “double rebalancing”; a geopolitical rebalancing, as illustrated by the “pivot to Asia,” and a rebalancing of means, with the Obama administration increasingly advancing diplomatic and economic negotiations (economic statecraft), emphasizing the indirect uses of military force and opening up reinforced dialogue with new actors.

First of all, shale oil is starting to take the same dimension as shale gas in the US. Already 51% of US production comes presently from unconventional gas (shale, tight gas and coal-bed methane), and outlooks predict that the US will produce more gas than Russia by 2020. Oil imports have already diminished from 60 to 45%. As domestic unconventional oil production tends to increase, - it is now around 15% - imports will probably decline even more.

RAMSES (Le Rapport annuel mondial sur le système économique et les stratégies), is a yearly publication that provides in-depth reviews and prospective analysis on current events, providing readers with indispensable insights and perspectives for understanding contemporary geopolitics on the global scale. Edited by Thierry de Montbrial and Philippe Moreau Defarges, RAMSES relies on the expertise of Ifri’s research team and its network of associates.