The wars ravaging the Middle East are not destined to continue forever and the region is not condemned to being governed by autocrats. A transition to a more just order for the region’s populations is possible, but will take time. It is unlikely to happen by 2029. Progress will be gradual, pushed by civil society. New revolutions are possible, although it is not sure they will lead to greater democracy.

Demographic forecasting is not an exact science. UN projections, which suggest that the world population may rise to 11.2 billion in 2100, could be overestimates. Indeed, fertility could fall more rapidly and life expectancy may rise less than expected. The Sahel is set to experience the most spectacular demographic explosion, but this will not necessarily lead to massive migration to Europe.

Forecasting in areas of strategy is particularly delicate as predictions may impact the course of events. While several major trends in the evolution of conflicts during the next decade can be identified, precise forecasts are impossible. Yet one thing is certain: in the next 10 years, decision-makers face unknown risks of significant consequence.

New technologies, particularly in cyberspace, have a strong impact on international relations and conflict. Malicious actors, be they lstates or non-state actors, have developed sophisticated means of influence. They tend to coordinate their physical and cyber activities with ever-greater precision. The security strategies of Western states need to change as a result and cease operating in silos.

Despite Indonesia’s reputation for a traditionally moderate brand of Islam, religious conservativism is gaining considerable political traction in the lead up to this April’s presidential election.

Although not akin to the protectionist policies practiced by the United States through the 1930s, the trade war launched by the Trump administration since early 2018 challenges the principles and institutions of free trade.

In 2016, Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into the European Union (UE) reached a record high, in contrast to the steady decline in FDI flows from the EU to China. Beijing is looking for markets and strategic assets and particularly targets advanced technologies in major European economies, deploying an aggressive and sometimes opaque strategy.

In Germany, an important role is ascribed to development policy when considering the question of how to deal with the causes of displacement and irregular migration. Development policy seeks to enable (potential) migrants to enjoy brighter prospects in their countries of origin through job creation measures so that they do not embark on the dangerous journey to Europe (or Germany) in the first place.