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After the Demographic Explosion

Date de publication
20 March 2019
Accroche

Demographic forecasting is not an exact science. UN projections, which suggest that the world population may rise to 11.2 billion in 2100, could be overestimates. Indeed, fertility could fall more rapidly and life expectancy may rise less than expected. The Sahel is set to experience the most spectacular demographic explosion, but this will not necessarily lead to massive migration to Europe.

Hervé LE BRAS
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Possible Energy Transitions through 2029

Date de publication
20 March 2019
Accroche

Renewable energies are experiencing rapid growth, due not only to their limited impact on the environment but also to shrinking costs. To fight climate change, new investments in low carbon technologies are necessary. Apart from its positive aspects, the energy transition carries risks, notably geopolitical. The notion of energy security will be profoundly modified. These risks can be anticipated and managed.

Adnan Z. AMIN
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Poverty and Inequality through 2030

Date de publication
20 March 2019
Accroche

Thanks to strong economic growth, poverty has tended to fall worldwide. But the trend is not sufficient to eradicate poverty by 2030. For this, growth would have to rise further and inequalities fall. Non-economic dimensions of well-being, such as education and health, also need to be taken into account. This assumes that governments in particular have the capacity to invest in public infrastructures.

Ravi KANBUR
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International trade disagreements: Beyond Trump

Date de publication
20 March 2019
Accroche

The trade war between the United States and China is not only due to Donald Trump’s impulsiveness. Its roots are in fact profound and follow three structural changes in the multilateral trading system: the reversal of comparative advantages, the now central role of certain developing countries, and the re-balancing of power that makes coordination between states difficult. In this context, the future of world trade has yet to be written.

Sébastien JEAN
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Beyond Putin: Russia’s Generations Y and Z

Date de publication
20 March 2019
Accroche

Of Russia’s 146 million citizens (if we include those in Crimea), 63 million—or 43 percent—are under 34 years of age. Of these, 30 million belong to Generation Y (millennials in their 20s and early 30s), 15 million belong to Gen Z (teenagers), and a further 18 million are part of the youngest generation (less than 10 years of age).

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Imagined Geographies of Central and Eastern Europe: The Concept of Intermarium

Date de publication
20 March 2019
Accroche

Like the proverbial cat, some concepts have several lives. Or, like the mythological phoenix, they can be reborn from the ashes. This is certainly the case of the Intermarium, a geopolitical concept that envisaged an alliance of countries reaching from the Baltic Sea over the Black Sea to the Aegean Sea that would serve as a third power bloc between Germany and Russia.

Marlène LARUELLE Ellen RIVERA
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The Future of the International Monetary and Financial System

Date de publication
20 March 2019
Accroche

Following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the international community sought new stability in the financial system and the assurance of sustained growth. The crisis that began in 2007-2008 has revealed weaknesses that affected advanced economies first and foremost. Efforts have since been made to consolidate the international financial architecture, to coordinate macroeconomic policy, and to improve foreign exchange relations, even if this latter objective has proven complex.

Jean-Claude TRICHET
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The Waning of Universalism

Date de publication
20 March 2019
Accroche

During the 19th century, Westerners provided ideological justifications for their colonization, namely spreading the Enlightenment across the globe. This project was received favorably until the second half of the 20th century. Over the last 20 years, it has met new hostility. The “universal values” promoted by the West are viewed today as a form of imperialism to be opposed – especially by China, Russia and Turkey.

Chantal DELSOL

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