La surprise stratégique. De la notion aux implications
The concept of strategic surprise has rarely been defined precisely and generally conveys the idea of a badly or non-anticipated threat which unexpectedly hits a state, shaking its conceptions and its position towards security. Until the 1980s strategic surprise would take the form of a nuclear surprise attack. In the 1990s, the idea of a so-called "computer Pearl Harbor" was put forward, which would neutralize the complex systems supporting western societies. With the 9/11 attacks, the threat of a strategic surprise suddenly materialized. After delineating the legitimate scope of the notion of "strategic surprise", highlighting the variability of its effects and underlining the importance of the "target" and of its vulnerability, this paper aims exploring some possible trails and answers, which would attempt to reduce not only the probability of an attack but also its impact.
Download the full analysis
This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.
La surprise stratégique. De la notion aux implications
Author(s)
Corentin BRUSTLEIN
Research fellow, coordinator of the Security Studies Center and head of the Deterrence and Proliferation program
Related centers and programs
Discover our other research centers and programs
Security Studies Center
Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.
Find out more
Discover all our analyses
Multiple Launch Rocket Systems Europe’s Long-standing and Enduring Dependence?
The war in Ukraine has underlined the importance of multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) in modern conflict, especially a war without clear air superiority and hence a reduced potential for air-launched deep strike. In 2022, the European MLRS fleet was split between a variety of Western platforms developed at the end of the Cold War and specialized in precision strikes.
Autonomous Systems in the Underwater Domain: A Limitless Revolution?
One of the decisive strategic factors in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war is the mass use of aerial, maritime, and terrestrial autonomous capabilities, which are transforming the face of the battlefield. Nevertheless, many of these drones are still remotely piloted, operated, or supervised, testifying to the fact that the autonomization of military capabilities is still at an embryonic stage.
France has a new nuclear doctrine of ‘forward deterrence’ for Europe. What does it mean?
On Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron delivered a speech on France’s nuclear deterrence at the Île Longue naval base near Brest in Brittany, which hosts the country’s nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines. Such addresses are a well-established presidential ritual, typically delivered once per presidential term and receiving moderate attention. This one, however, was highly anticipated in France and abroad, given the profound geopolitical shifts since Macron’s first nuclear speech in February 2020.
Bundeswehr: From Zeitenwende (historic turning point) to Epochenbruch (epochal shift)
The Zeitenwende (historic turning point) announced by Olaf Scholz on February 27, 2022, is shifting into high gear. Financially supported by the March 2025 reform of Germany’s “debt break” and backed by a broad political and societal consensus to strengthen and modernize the Bundeswehr, Germany's military capabilities are set to rapidly increase over the coming years. Expected to assume a central role in the defense of the European continent in the context of changing transatlantic relations, Berlin’s military-political position on the continent is being radically transformed.