South Asian leaders continue to reiterate how “central” ASEAN is to the region’s security architecture. However, in practice, the tendency is to prioritize bilateral agreements, gradually marginalizing the organization. This fragmentation is weakening regional cooperation, accentuating divisions, and compromising stability in the context of growing tensions in the Indo-Pacific. These trends are worrying at a time when Sino-American rivalries are becoming more acute.

The secret of success for many Southeast Asian countries has been their choice of economic and diplomatic multilateralism. Fence-sitting between rival powers is becoming fraught. China inspires a degree of fear in the region, due to its clout and geographical proximity. And under Trump, the United States is on the offensive against the multilateral trade system, with major diplomatic consequences. Can Southeast Asian countries maintain their balance by embracing new partnerships?

The second Trump administration brings together a number of very different, even opposing, ideologies: far-right populism, the reactionary Christian right, paleolibertarianism, and technolibertarianism. The most visible measures taken since Donald Trump's return to the White House have been populist in nature, with the president's authority strengthened, checks and balances weakened, a form of identity politics embraced, and economic nationalism implemented.