“The best way to predict the future is to create it.”
Abraham Lincoln

Let us remember the Europe of ten years ago. In 2009, even though concern was growing about the impact of the subprime crisis, which had recently broken out in the United States (Lehman Brothers had gone bankrupt the previous year), the European Union (EU) was relatively calm and even ready for a new stage in its integration process. The European Parliamentary elections on 4 June led to the victory of conservatives and the arrival of Manuel Barroso’s team at the head of the Commission. A second referendum in Ireland – positive this time – in October, allowed the Treaty of Lisbon to come into force on 1 December, with important provisions on creating the Presidency of the Council of the European Union (Herman Van Rompuy) and the position of High Representative of the Union for Foreign Policy and Defense (Catherine Ashton).
 

The attractiveness of the EU could not be denied. Iceland submitted an application for admission that it only withdrew in 2015. Above all, the dominant thinking in Europe presented adopting the Euro as an opportunity, a bulwark, and solid protection against the effects of the economic crisis which was hammering the United States at the time. Admittedly, the Greek crisis emerged in October 2009, but confidence remained high in the EU’s ability to overcome this challenge and to start a new phase in its history with the Lisbon Treaty. When it looked to the rest of the world, Europe mainly turned to the United States, and it admired Barack Obama, who was inaugurated at the start of 2009 and awarded the Nobel Peace Prize nine months later.
 

In short, 2009 was part of another world, and absolutely belongs to the past. Ten years later in 2019, it is no longer the economic crisis which dominates the European agenda: growth of around 2% has even timidly returned to some European economies. Instead, it is an unprecedented political crisis which is striking fear in the liberal and democratic foundations of the European project. Populism is growing everywhere, from the French Gilets jaunes to the electoral support for Matteo Salvini, Viktor Orban and key Polish politicians. This very populism is of course also fracturing American society, and the United States is no longer generating the appeal and trust which usually permeate relations with allies. In fact, there is astonishment and concern among Europeans in the face of an unpredictable, short-tempered, and deeply anti-European Donald Trump, especially because he is anti-German. [...]

OUTLINE

• Two conflicting forces
• Three lessons 
  - The second lesson of the past: globalization is not necessarily good news
  - The third lesson: Europe cannot continue as if nothing had happened
• Three or four scenarios…

Nicole Gnesotto is Professor of the European Union at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Institut des Hautes Études de Défense Nationale.