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Édito Énergie
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Free Europe's Economists
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By all indications they have been locked up while spin doctors are writing statements for Presidents and Prime Ministers. Not since Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez seized on the idea at the end of the last century have we heard serious contemplation of an oil price band. The last forty years of experience with price volatility in commodities should by now have provided ample proof that negotiated, state-administered price bands are meaningless and confounding for markets.

Set that aside and the two Summiteers have some good thoughts. Collaboration between IEA and OPEC remains a good idea, but it predates creation of IEF and has been consistently robust. Forecasters and economists in both organizations know well the differences in each agency's outlook and their origins. Underlying numbers are drawn from the same sources or sometimes from each other - but it should come as no surprise that a supplier will describe the same elephant differently that a consumer - shared analysis but different conclusions.

Instructing the IEF to carry out a mandate "to arrive at a common long-term view on what price range would be consistent with the fundamentals" is to appear to be action-oriented while putting an impossible task before a group that cannot hope to accomplish it. Governments should turn first to their role in addressing the thorny issues that make oil supply and demand so inelastic, arguably adding more volatility to the market than speculators.

Transparency has been a priority for years and some considerable progress has been made. The Joint Oil Data Initiative, driven initially by IEA and OPEC and now managed by IEF is a good example. But many energy market data are still opaque. Financial market involvement in energy commodity markets needs considerably greater transparency and monitoring, recognizing that non commercial trading in energy commodities is ultimately a good thing. So too are more transparency and oversight.

Where President Sarkozy and Prime Minister Brown can contribute more to market stability and predictability - is by ensuring that their national projections for climate change policy, renewables penetration, efficiency gains and technology deployment are reflected in clear policy decisions and regulatory guidance to the market. Uncertainty in energy commodity markets is aggravated by policy uncertainty combined with political targetry. Why put in capacity if demand for fossil fuels will be dropping sharply? Why build refineries if biofuels are going to fill the gap? Who needs another pipeline if European incremental gas demand to 2020 is flat?

Policy-induced uncertainties aggravate the cyclical nature of energy commodity markets and create opportunities for portfolio managers to add energy to their financial strategies, probably aggravating volatility, but only because the opportunity is there.

For further input to G8 energy reflections click here

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William C. RAMSAY

Intitulé du poste

Directeur du Centre Energie de l'Ifri de 2008 à 2011, Conseiller de 2012 à 2016

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Climate & Energy
Center for Energy & Climate
Accroche centre

Ifri's Energy and Climate Center carries out activities and research on the geopolitical and geoeconomic issues of energy transitions such as energy security, competitiveness, control of value chains, and acceptability. Specialized in the study of European energy/climate policies as well as energy markets in Europe and around the world, its work also focuses on the energy and climate strategies of major powers such as the United States, China or India. It offers recognized expertise, enriched by international collaborations and events, particularly in Paris and Brussels.

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Reconnecting With Europe's Nuclear DNA: a Political Question

Date de publication
10 July 2025
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As Europe's main source of low-carbon electricity, nuclear power is a strategic asset for tackling climate and geopolitical challenges. 

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Will the Western Nuclear Power Revival Take Place? The State of Extra-European Advances

Date de publication
10 July 2025
Accroche

Against the dual backdrop of the energy transition and the rapid transformation of the international order, the question of Western nuclear revival is being raised with renewed acuity. 

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Re-evaluating Copper Supply: The Crucial Role of Technology

Date de publication
18 June 2025
Accroche

Some authors argue that the energy transition is doomed to fail due to metal scarcity and the rising energy costs of extraction. 

Cédric PHILIBERT Nicholas ARNDT
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The Strategic Dimension of Power System Flexibility: Opportunities in Europe

Date de publication
30 April 2025
Accroche

The European Union has embarked on an energy transition aimed primarily at replacing fossil fuels by electrifying demand. 

Cédric PHILIBERT Arthur de LASSUS
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