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Placing the EU on a Warfare Footing: Energy and Raw Materials Priorities for 2026

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Ifri papers cover on Placing the EU on a Warfare Footing: Energy and Raw Materials Priorities  for 2026
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The year 2025 has confirmed that one must prepare for much worse in the field of geopolitics and geoeconomics as the intensity and frequency of shocks increase and as the European Union (EU) has no more stable flanks now that crises with the United States (US) become so frequent and reveal a systemic rift. In the world, barriers to trade multiply and dependencies are weaponized.

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Illustration with UE, Chinese, US, and Russian Flags
© OnePixelStudio/Shutterstock
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The EU must continue to step up its game and move to strategic action and planning with adjusted and reinforced policy instruments, new approaches and methods, as peace time objectives and policies cannot deliver for warfare times.

In the energy and raw materials field, the European Commission (EC) has been very active in 2025, with several key legislative proposals and plans, notably the Clean Industrial Deal, the Affordable Energy Action Plan, the Grids package, RESourceEU, more flexibility for the 2035 automotive targets, accelerated permitting, CBAM adjustments, nuclear energy no more entirely sidelined, and specific proposals as part of the next Multi-annual financial framework (MFF). 

Several priorities in the field of energy and economic security are singled out in this note, as follows:   

  1. First, for all sensitive energy and economic sectors, Member States (MS) need fully operational, capable and competent sectoral points of contact in place that can rapidly meet and prepare policy responses to crises. [...]
  2. Moreover, the EU’s short and long-term planning should now decisively include severely degraded scenarios that test resilience and policies in situations that no one would have thought likely, a few years or months ago, but which are now entirely possible.  [...]
  3.  As the energy security framework is being revised and a Grids package proposed, action should focus on diversifying gas supplies and contract/pricing types, reinforcing network codes and various standards to avoid cyber-attacks on electricity systems and support Made in Europe power electronics, not least also by streamlining efforts on standardization. [...]
  4. The EU urgently needs to lay the conditions for an electrification breakthrough in 2026. Urgent actions are needed, such as on taxation policy, funding in the next MFF, European Investment Bank (EIB) involvement, deployment of individual and industrial heat pumps and priority grid connections/expansions.  [...]
  5. The EU must gradually expand the scope of the CBAM to include more downstream products. Announcements have been made by the EC to this effect and are a welcome step forward. As the CBAM mechanism is broad and necessarily complex, its implementation is likely to reveal “loopholes” affecting the competitiveness of certain specific sectors. In this regard, part of the revenue generated by the CBAM could be used to support sectors affected by these “loopholes”, once they have been identified by industries and the EC.  [...]
  6.  “Made in Europe” requirements should be based on environmental and resilience criteria and be progressive to give sufficient time to value chains to adapt and avoid a significant rise of prices. They should take into account gaps across the value chain and the need for investment in strategic capacities beforehand, with the support of the EIB.   [...]
  7. The EU’s strategy to secure critical raw material value chains has been progressing, but needs to be further stepped up strategically. The US financial mobilization is between 1 and 5, and up to 1 and 8, compared with the EU one.  [...]

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Placing the EU on a Warfare Footing: Energy and Raw Materials Priorities for 2026

Decoration
Author(s)
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Marc-Antoine EYL-MAZZEGA Photo

Marc-Antoine EYL-MAZZEGA

Intitulé du poste
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Diana-Paula GHERASIM

Diana-Paula GHERASIM

Intitulé du poste

Former Research Fellow, Head of European Energy and Climate Policies, Energy and Climate Center, Ifri

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Thibault MICHEL

Thibault MICHEL

Intitulé du poste

Research Fellow, Center for Energy & Climate, Ifri

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Climate & Energy
Center for Energy & Climate
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Ifri's Energy and Climate Center carries out activities and research on the geopolitical and geoeconomic issues of energy transitions such as energy security, competitiveness, control of value chains, and acceptability. Specialized in the study of European energy/climate policies as well as energy markets in Europe and around the world, its work also focuses on the energy and climate strategies of major powers such as the United States, China or India. It offers recognized expertise, enriched by international collaborations and events, particularly in Paris and Brussels.

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Date de publication
23 October 2025
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Brazil’s general elections will be held on October 4, 2026, to elect the president, vice-president, members of the National Congress, governors, deputy governors and state legislative assemblies. For the presidential and gubernatorial elections, a second round will be held on October 25 if no candidate obtains a majority of the votes in the first round. 

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Date de publication
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Paul WATKINSON
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The Strategic Dimension of Skills in the Clean Industrial Deal

Date de publication
29 September 2025
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In the competitiveness and energy transition battles, the European Union (EU) must master a determinant factor: skills. 

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The Energy Transition Faces Geopolitical Challenges. How Can Ideological Divides Be Overcome?

Date de publication
18 September 2025
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President Trump’s positions and policies, combined with record coal consumption and booming global electricity demand, geo-economic confrontation, and widespread concerns about energy security, are changing the game when it comes to understanding realistic decarbonization trajectories. The war in Europe is intensifying competition between defense and transition budgets. This is also the case elsewhere in the world.

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Illustration with UE, Chinese, US, and Russian Flags
© OnePixelStudio/Shutterstock

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