La Guerre de vingt ans. Djihadisme et contre-terrorisme au XXIe siècle
La Guerre de vingt ans was awarded the Prize for the best book on geopolitics in 2021.
It has already been twenty years since the World Trade Center towers came crashing down. Who would have believed that, two decades later, the global war on terrorism continues without an end in sight? From the sands of the Sahara to the jungles of southeast Asia and from the Iraqi plains to the Afghani mountains, the West and its allies are still chasing down the jihadist movement with faultless determination. The threat is not limited to far-off countries; Europe, and especially France, have paid a high price for this long conflict.
Al-Qaeda has shown remarkable resilience, and several new groups, like ISIS, have since appeared. The fall of the so-called “caliphate” as proclaimed by ISIS does not signal the end to the organization, much less to its deadly ideology. There are now two to three times more jihadist fighters in the world than at the start of the twenty-first century. This discouraging figure from an endless war begs the question: what have we done in the last twenty years? Despite hundreds of thousands of human lives lost and considerable sums spent in the war on terrorism, why is the threat still so high?
This exceptional book, the fruit of several years of field investigations, offers the first history of the war on terrorism from 2001 to today. The authors decipher the strategic dynamics of this conflict by explaining why it is so difficult to break the spiral of violence and look back over these two decades of fighting in order to find essential lessons for the future.
La Guerre de vingt ans. Djihadisme et contre-terrorisme au XXIe siècle [The Twenty Years' War. Jihadism and Counter-terrorism in the 21st Century], Robert Laffont, 448 pages, 29 avril 2021.
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Marc HECKER
Executive Director of Ifri, Editor-in-Chief of Politique étrangère, and Research Fellow at the Security Studies Center, Ifri
Élie TENENBAUM
Director of Ifri’s Security Studies Center
Security Studies Center
Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.
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The distinction between internal and external threats is often exaggerated, as the borders are so porous. Conflicts taking place thousands of kilometers from France can have tragic resonances on national territory. Radicalization, terrorism and even organized crime have an international dimension that cannot be ignored.
Framework Nation: A European Challenge and French Ambition
First appearing in the early 2000s, the framework nation concept follows several distinct rationales, whether it refers to a country assuming the leadership of a military operation, directing a multinational capability project, or commanding a permanent force structure. In every case, the country that takes on this role fully intends to derive from it additional politico-military influence.
The Nuanced Relationship Between Public Opinion and Foreign Policy
Public sentiment is something decision-makers must contend with, especially in democratic states. However, the extent to which public opinion shapes foreign policy varies. Three Council of Councils experts in France, India, and Nigeria reflect on how public opinion does—and sometimes does not—affect foreign policy decisions.
Taking the Pulse: Enough with the Annual NATO Summits, Already?
Over the past ten years, NATO has held almost as many summits as it did during the entirety of the Cold War. Are they still useful, or is it time to stop holding annual meetings?
How does France’s nuclear deterrent contribute to the defense of Europe?
France’s nuclear deterrent, serving first and foremost to defend France’s vital interests, also contributes to the defense of Europe. This contribution has been recognized within the North Atlantic Alliance since 1974, but remains little known. In a speech closely followed by France’s European partners and its adversaries alike, President Emmanuel Macron announced a new concept for French nuclear deterrence: “forward deterrence” (dissuasion avancée). This article aims to explain the origins of this concept, outline its main pillars, and describe the partnerships that are sought. It then discusses the relationship with the U.S. doctrine of “extended deterrence”, and finally offers some ethical considerations.