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Main Battle Tank: Obsolescence or Renaissance?

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Focus Stratégique
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Focus stratégique cover Main Battle Tank: obsolescence or renaissance? Léo Peria Peigné
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Since February 2022, Russian and Ukrainian forces combined have lost more than 5,000 battle tanks, a much higher volume than all the European armor combined. Spearhead of the Soviet doctrine from which the two belligerents came, tanks were deployed in large numbers from the first day and proved to be a prime target for UAVs that became more numerous and efficient over the months. The large number of UAV strike videos against tanks has also led a certain number of observers to conclude, once again, that armor is obsolete on a modern battlefield. This approach must, however, be nuanced by a deeper study of the losses and their origin, UAVs rarely being the sole origin of the loss itself, often caused by a combination of factors such as mines, artillery or other anti-tank weapons.

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French Leclerc tanks in Romania, 2024, Letter from the Chief of the Army Staff, French Army Ifri
French Leclerc tanks in Romania, 2024, Letter from the Chief of the Army Staff, French Army
Aure AVONDO / armée de Terre / Ministère des Armées
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Even if its own efficiency has increased since 2022, the UAV itself is still often used to « finish » a disabled and abandoned armored vehicle, to avoid its recovery and recommissioning. Indeed, a significant proportion of tanks considered to be put out of action are recovered and returned to service or reused. Interestingly, the tank duel represents only a fraction of the losses.

To face a more transparent and deadlier battlefield, both sides have led adaptation of their use of the heavy segment, for example, favoring operations in overcast weather, less conducive to drones, or incorporating terrain modifications such as the famous anti-UAV cages – a Russian innovation subsequently adopted by other armies like the IDF. These tactical and technical adaptations have made it possible to reduce the losses of tanks, which are now mainly used for infantry support, just as they did in 1917 when they first appeared on the battlefield. The use of tanks to shoot beyond line of sight is another practice that has become widespread to gain a few kilometers and stay away from an increasingly lethal front line. The few breakthroughs, however, saw the more classic use of armor in a temporary return to mobile warfare. In the long term, changes in the very architecture of the tanks are envisaged by both sides to better fit their needs.

After three decades of contraction of the fleet in service, European forces are back investing in armor, which remains an essential element of combined arms combat. Most armies, including those that had abandoned them a decade earlier, launched programs to acquire new tanks or modernize existing parks. This dynamic mainly benefits the German industry, and the Leopard 2 is already the most common modern tank in Europe. The other historical European players in this sector – the United Kingdom, Italy, and France – no longer produce tanks, and non-European actors are coming to challenge the quasi-monopoly of Germany. South Korea and the United States have won a few contracts that offer them solid bridgeheads on a resurgent continental market. The competition for the next generation of tanks seems to be articulated between the German and South Korean industries, which both have a strong lead.

Strongly considered by the French Army in the early 2000s, abandoning tanks no longer seems relevant, but the alternatives to the ongoing French-German cooperation are limited. In addition to off-the-shelf procurement, leads exist in the Middle East as well as in Europe. A national effort could also lead to the development of an intermediate national solution, helping to upgrade the French land defense industry, which has been able to preserve the necessary core competence but did not put them in use for years. Regardless of the solution chosen, increasing the heavy segment seems essential to support the French ambition to command an army corps within the Atlantic Alliance. Without trying to match the Polish or German plans, which could exceed a thousand tanks in service, France must be more assertive in the ongoing European rearmament dynamic, at the risk of permanently losing ground in a military field that has long been its strong point.

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Main Battle Tank: Obsolescence or Renaissance?

Decoration
Author(s)
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Léo PÉRIA-PEIGNÉ

Léo PÉRIA-PEIGNÉ

Intitulé du poste

Research Fellow, Security Studies Center, Ifri

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 A soldier watching a sunset on an armored infantry fighting vehicle
Security Studies Center
Accroche centre

Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.

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Group of kamkazza combat drones against the background of sky and clouds, top view, 3d rendering. Concept: war in Ukraine, drone attack.
Observatory on Future Conflicts
Accroche centre

The Observatory of Future Conflicts is a research program carried out by the French Institute of International Relations and the Foundation for Strategic Research on behalf of the three army headquarters aimed at studying developments in tensions and armaments at the horizon 2040 in a transversal perspective, taking into account the issues of each army.

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Mapping the MilTech War: Eight Lessons from Ukraine’s Battlefield

Date de publication
12 February 2026
Accroche

This report maps out the evolution of key technologies that have emerged or developed in the last 4 years of the war in Ukraine. Its goal is to derive the lessons the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) could learn to strengthen its defensive capabilities and prepare for modern war, which is large-scale and conventional in nature.

Élie TENENBAUM Bohdan KOSTIUK Daryna-Maryna PATIUK Anastasya SHAPOCHKINA
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"Iron Swords" A Military Analysis of Israel's War in Gaza

Date de publication
02 October 2025
Accroche

On October 7, 2023, Hamas' attack, dubbed “Al-Aqsa Flood,” caused a major shock and led Israel to launch the longest war in its history. Operation “Iron Swords” was notable for its unprecedented intensity, both in terms of the massive ground forces deployed and the firepower used.

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Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Temptations. Lessons Learned from Regional Instability

Date de publication
11 September 2025
Accroche

Saudi Arabia’s integration in the international arena and regional stability, notably through reducing its dependence on fossil energies, are crucial elements for the success of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030, the Crown Prince’s top priority. However, Mohammed bin Salman’s declarations in 2018 and 2021, indicating that “if Iran develops a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible”, combined with the recent strikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, do not bode well for the future of the Kingdom, the region and the non-proliferation regime at large.

Nour EID
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The Future of Air Superiority. Command of the Air in High Intensity Warfare

Date de publication
24 January 2025
Accroche

Air superiority, understood as control of the air, is a cornerstone of the Western art of warfare. It is a decisive condition, albeit not sufficient by itself, to achieve military victory, as it enables the concentration of air power toward the achievement of wider strategic objectives and protects other components from unbearable attrition levels. It is best achieved through the offensive use of air power in a joint effort to neutralize the enemy’s air power.

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French Leclerc tanks in Romania, 2024, Letter from the Chief of the Army Staff, French Army
Aure AVONDO / armée de Terre / Ministère des Armées

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Main Battle Tank: Obsolescence or Renaissance?