The 2026 State Elections in Baden-Württemberg: First Test For Chancellor Merz's Federal Government?
The state election in Baden-Wuerttemberg in March 2026 will be the first major test of public opinion for Chancellor Friedrich Merz's federal government. At the same time, Baden-Wuerttemberg is one of the federal states that—as an important location for the German automotive industry and its suppliers—is particularly affected by the transformation policy driven by climate change and the international conflict constellation.
Against the background of low approval ratings for the federal government made up of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats, as well as the announced job cuts in the automotive industry in Baden-Wuerttemberg, which the incumbent state government made up of the Greens and CDU is facing, the question arises as to how this will affect the results of the state election. This article discusses – with reference to the development of party strength in Baden-Wuerttemberg over the last ten years and the programmatic orientation of the parties – what the election results might be. Moreover, it analyses how the government will be formed, and which effects will occur at the state and federal political levels.
Marc Debus is a political scientist specializing in comparative government at the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Mannheim. His research interests include the analysis of voting behavior, parties and party competition, coalition governance, and legislative action.
This publication is only available in:
French (PDF): Les élections régionales de 2026 dans le Bade-Wurtemberg : un premier test pour le gouvernement ‘‘noir-rouge’’ de Friedrich Merz ?
German (PDF): Die Landtagswahlen 2026 in Baden-Württemberg: Erster Test für die schwarz-rote Bundesregierung von Kanzler Merz?
Available in:
Themes and regions
DOI
Notes du Cerfa, No. 190, Ifri, March 2026
Share
The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa)
The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) was created in 1954 by an inter-governmental agreement between the Federal Republic of Germany and France, in order to raise awareness of Germany in France and analyze Franco-German relations, including in their European and international dimensions. In its conferences and seminars, which bring together experts, political leaders, senior decision-makers and representatives of civil society from both countries, Cerfa develops the Franco-German debate and stimulates political proposals. It regularly publishes studies through two collections: Cerfa notes and studies as well as Franco-German visions.
Cerfa maintains close relations with the network of German foundations and think tanks. In addition to its research and debate activities, Cerfa promotes the emergence of a new Franco-German generation through original cooperation programs. This is how in 2021-2022, Cerfa led a program on multilateralism with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Paris. This program is aimed at young professionals from both countries interested in the issues of multilateralism in the context of their activities. It covered a wide range of themes relating to multilateralism, such as international trade, health, human rights and migration, non-proliferation and disarmament. Previously, Cerfa had participated in the Franco-German future dialogue, co-led with the DGAP from 2007 to 2020, and supported by the Robert Bosch Foundation and the Daniel Vernet group (formerly the Franco-German Reflection Group) which was founded in 2014 upon the initiative of the Genshagen Foundation.
Franco-German Relations Through the Lens of Donald Trump’s Second Term: Between Strategic Realignments, European Sovereignty, and the Enduring Transatlantic Bond
Donald Trump’s return to the presidency of the United States in 2025 acts as a powerful catalyst for the Franco-German relationship. Faced with growing uncertainty over the reliability of US security guarantees, Germany, more directly affected by the questioning of the transatlantic relationship, is gradually moving closer to the French position in favor of strengthening European strategic sovereignty.
MAGA and AfD: Toward a Transatlantic Alliance of Nationalist Right-Wing Parties
The rapprochement between Donald Trump’s MAGA movement and Germany’s AfD has accelerated significantly since Trump’s return to the White House.
VW, Mercedes, and BMW in the Face of Donald Trump—A Tightrope Walk Between Investing in the U.S., Maintaining Operations in Europe, and Catching Up in Electric Mobility
The German automotive industry faces a threefold challenge: competition from China; a difficult transition to electric vehicles; and US tariffs.
A Partnership Built on Security: Post-Brexit Rapprochement between Germany and the United Kingdom
Since the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, UK-German relations have undergone a remarkable transformation: from Berlin’s deliberate distancing from London during the Brexit negotiations, when Germany consistently prioritised EU-27 unity over bilateral arrangements, to a gradual rapprochement, culminating, for the time being, in the 2025 Kensington Treaty of Friendship.