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How Geopolitical Tensions Reshape Trade Patterns: Geoeconomic Fragmentation, or China’s Big Manufacturing Push?

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Couv Note Sébastien Jean 2024
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A data-based analysis shows that widespread geoeconomic fragmentation of world trade is not visible, at least so far. In contrast, the geopolitically-motivated challenges to international coordination are striking, notably in relation with China's surging surplus in manufactured goods trade.

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It has become received wisdom to consider the world economy as increasingly shaped by forces of fragmentation, resulting from geopolitical tensions and strategic competition between great powers, including through trade and industrial policies. This Ifri Paper reconsiders this narrative using international trade data. It shows that, far from being a widespread trend, geoeconomic fragmentation of trade flows is only significant in “hotspots”; that is, for Russia’s foreign trade and for China-United States bilateral exchanges. Outside these hotspots, there is no tangible sign that geopolitical tensions have been shaping international trade blocs, nor is there any hint of a trend toward nearshoring – on the contrary, in fact. There is no evidence either that competing industrial policies have been reshaping trade patterns. The clearest trend is much more specific: it is the massive surge in China’s surplus in manufactured goods trade, up to 11% of the world’s total or these products since early 2023. Sudden and common to all main directions and all main sectors, this push has been policy-driven. As economic security concerns reinforce governments’ focus on manufacturing, this has become a major challenge to international coordination.

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979-10-373-0963-1

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How Geopolitical Tensions Reshape Trade Patterns: Geoeconomic Fragmentation, or China’s Big Manufacturing Push?

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Author(s)
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Sébastien JEAN

Sébastien JEAN

Intitulé du poste

Associate Director of Ifri's Geoeconomics and Geofinance initiative

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Geoeconomics and Geofinance Initiative
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To analyze the impact of power rivalries and tensions on globalization, this initiative combines economic and political expertise. In the face of growing geopolitical risk, the goal is to decipher the dynamics of reconfiguration: protectionist pressures, sanctions, restrictions, industrial policies, and economic security concerns are redefining the rules of international trade. These tensions are also transforming international financial relations by undermining the foundations of trust and reshaping the global monetary system. They raise questions about the role of several key players: sovereign wealth funds, central banks, digital platforms, multilateral institutions, and financial infrastructure operators. In a context of profound disruption, simply refining existing approaches is no longer sufficient. The initiative is designed as a flexible model, drawing on diverse expertise to offer both broad overviews and targeted analyses. It also provides a platform for stakeholders and experts from various backgrounds to debate these issues freely.

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Manufacturing Risk: Geopolitical Doxa and the Corporate World

Date de publication
02 April 2025
Accroche

The evolving power dynamics between the United States, China, and Russia are creating new geopolitical realities that businesses can no longer evade. Geopolitical risk has become unavoidable, yet many companies remain unprepared to navigate its complexities. Corporate leaders can no longer afford to overlook its implications.

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Trump's Trade War: What Answers for the European Union?

Date de publication
14 May 2025
Accroche

The announcement, on April 2, 2025, of “reciprocal tariffs” by the United States has opened a sequence of profound break with decades of established trade policy practices, where the administration behaviour has been marked by dogmatic blindness, amateurism, and self-serving interests. 

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Multi-alignment and De-risking: The Global South Response to World Fragmentation

Date de publication
31 October 2024
Accroche

Turbulences and conflicts threaten the stability of the global order. What is the Global South’s response to these risks?

Hakim BEN HAMMOUDA
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Power and Financial Interdependence

Date de publication
03 May 2024
Accroche

The link between financial self-reliance and geopolitical power has long been debated. The unbalanced Sino-American trade relationship has created asymmetric financial ties which generate potential sources of leverage for both parties and will not quickly disappear. Absent a clarifying major crisis, it will be difficult to definitively determine which party has greater leverage.

Brad SETSER
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Image de couverture de la publication
Couv Note Sébastien Jean 2024
How Geopolitical Tensions Reshape Trade Patterns: Geoeconomic Fragmentation, or China’s Big Manufacturing Push?, from Ifri by
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Image de couverture de la publication
Couv Note Sébastien Jean 2024

How Geopolitical Tensions Reshape Trade Patterns: Geoeconomic Fragmentation, or China’s Big Manufacturing Push?