Yet the term “nuclear threat” is often used loosely in public debates, without a clear understanding of what it actually entails. How can observers distinguish between deterrent signaling aimed at shaping an adversary’s perceptions and a credible threat of nuclear use? What indicators help assess the seriousness of a situation and the intentions of political leaders?

This seminar, organized with the Fondation pour la recherche stratégique, will explore the analytical challenges involved in assessing nuclear threats in the twenty-first century. Drawing on recent crises and the evolution of nuclear signaling practices, the discussion will examine the conceptual tools needed to interpret the words and actions of nuclear-armed states, as well as the risks of escalation generated by misperceptions and misunderstandings in contemporary crises.

Speaker:

George Perkovich, Japan Chair and Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, author of "How to Assess Nuclear Threats in the 21st Century" (Carnegie, 2026)

Discussant : 

Bruno Tertrais, Deputy Director, Fondation pour la recherche stratégique

Chair:

Héloïse Fayet, Researcher and Head of the Deterrence and Proliferation Program at Ifri