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Ukraine at the Crossroads: Between the EU DCFTA and Customs Union

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Russie.Eurasie.Reports
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After serious decline in the 1990s, Ukraine's economy finally started its recovery and systemic reform in early 2000. While the economy rapidly grew by 2008, its transformation remained unfinished. Ukraine has three possible roads to development. 

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The first, and least probable, is to stay on its own. The second, and currently most feasible, is to sign an Association Agreement (AA) with the EU that includes a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA). The third, and most controversial, choice is to join the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan and embark on further Moscow-led integration projects.

Negotiations with the EU are now finalized: the agreement was finally initialed at the end of March 2012. However, further steps, such as signing and ratification of the agreement depend on the Ukrainian side. Ukraine's leadership has repeatedly confirmed the country's interest in signing and ratifying the Association Agreement with the EU. Meanwhile, Russia's invitation to join the Customs Union has been consistently, but politely declined. However, many Western and Russian observers still question the irreversibility and credibility of this decision.

An earlier version of this paper was presented at a conference organized by Ifri in the framework of the Eurasian Trade Task Force (ETTF), 17 October 2011. The ETTF addresses the different commercial and economic integration projects in Eurasia and their impact on domestic and foreign policies of the states concerned.

 

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978-2-36567-011-1

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Ukraine at the Crossroads: Between the EU DCFTA and Customs Union

Decoration
Author(s)
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Russie, Eurasie, Carte
Russia/Eurasia Center
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Founded in 2005 within Ifri, the Russia/Eurasia Center conducts research and organizes debates on Russia, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus. Its goal is to understand and anticipate the evolution of this complex and rapidly changing geographical area in order to enrich public discourse in France and Europe and to assist in strategic, political, and economic decision-making.

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Date de publication
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Accroche

The traditional and high-intensity war that has occurred in Ukraine since Russia decided to invade raises a key issue: did post-soviet Russian strategic thought really prepare Russia for waging this war?

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Date de publication
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Accroche

From the outset of its “special military operation” (SVO) against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russia, which possesses one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals, has adopted aggressive deterrence measures and a resolutely menacing rhetorical stance.

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Moldova's Crucial Parliamentary Election. What's at Stake?

Date de publication
22 September 2025
Accroche

On the occasion of Moldova’s National Day, August 27, 2025, Chișinău hosted a high-level European delegation composed of Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz and Donald Tusk, who sought to reaffirm their support for the country’s sovereignty and pro-European course. This unprecedented and highly symbolic visit took place at a pivotal moment. Moldova is preparing for decisive parliamentary elections on September 28, whose stakes extend far beyond the national framework.

Florent PARMENTIER
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War as Social Elevator: The Socioeconomic Impact of Russian Military Keynesianism

Date de publication
19 June 2025
Accroche

In order to finance its war effort, the Russian state has spent substantial sums of money and implemented a form of “military Keynesianism” that is transforming society at both the socioeconomic and cultural levels. This has partially rebalanced the wide disparities in wealth, levels of consumption, and social prestige in Russian society by granting significant financial and symbolic advantages to peripheral Russia, which has long been overlooked by the central government. 

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Ukraine at the Crossroads: Between the EU DCFTA and Customs Union