Afghanistan-Pakistan: The Overlooked War at the Margins of the Middle East Conflict
Pakistan has historically maintained the closest ties to the Taliban movement and initially viewed its return to power in Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 with considerable optimism. The bilateral relationship has since deteriorated, and the two neighbors have been caught in a cycle of escalation since last fall. In October 2025, Pakistan launched its first airstrikes on Kabul. For three weeks in February–March 2026, Afghanistan intensified ground assaults on the Pakistani side of the border as well as drone attacks on Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Pakistan, for its part, has intensified airstrikes on Afghan border areas, as well as on Kabul and Kandahar. Given the dynamics at play at the bilateral and regional levels, the prospects for a sustained return to stability appear limited.
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Summary
The intensification of terrorist attacks by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)—a movement opposed to the federal government—on Pakistani territory is the primary driver of the escalating tensions between Islamabad and the Taliban regime.
In the absence of meaningful cooperation, Pakistan is now intent on compelling Kabul to take action against the TTP on its territory and is correspondingly increasing pressure to that end.
Following Pakistan’s airstrikes in October 2025, Qatar and Turkey urged Pakistan and the Taliban to negotiate a ceasefire. Saudi Arabia joined the efforts and the three states secured a five-day truce from Kabul and Islamabad to coincide with the celebrations marking the end of Ramadan.
China, too, has been attempting discreet mediation since 2025, without much success. India, for its part, is making no mediation efforts, as its relationship with Pakistan has been at an all-time low since their four-day armed conflict in May 2025.
As for the Trump administration, it has generally supported Pakistan’s military campaign against Afghanistan in the name of the “right to self-defense”.
The war in the Middle East presents several challenges for Pakistan and Afghanistan. For Pakistan, it disrupts hydrocarbon supplies and exacerbates economic difficulties. On the Afghan side, its impact is primarily humanitarian.
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Afghanistan-Pakistan: The Overlooked War at the Margins of the Middle East Conflict
Author(s)
Isabelle SAINT-MEZARD
Associate Research Fellow, Center for Asian Studies, Ifri
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