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Conventionalizing Deterrence? U.S. Prompt Strike Programs and Their Limits

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Proliferation Papers
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About a decade ago, the U.S. started to examine options to develop and acquire Conventional Prompt Global Strike capabilities. This move fits in an effort to conventionalize deterrence, an effort initiated decades before and undertaken for profound and diverse motives. Although it has been renewed under the Obama administration, which aims to reduce the U.S. reliance on nuclear weapons, this ambition has resulted in very little concrete progress.

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Budget cuts to defense spending and technological obstacles have forced the Pentagon to scale back its plans in terms of conventional strategic strike programs. Despite these setbacks, ten years from now the U.S. may well possess a conventional prompt strike capability in its arsenal. As a consequence, this paper also highlights some longer-term, operational and strategic issues that might arise from a context of crisis or war in which prompt strike capabilities could be used, and attempts to shed new light on the potential values these capabilities might have for U.S. national security.

 

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978-2-36567-340-2

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Conventionalizing Deterrence? U.S. Prompt Strike Programs and Their Limits

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Author(s)
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Corentin BRUSTLEIN

Intitulé du poste

Research fellow, coordinator of the Security Studies Center and head of the Deterrence and Proliferation program

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Security Studies Center
Accroche centre

Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.

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Deterrence and Proliferation
Accroche centre

The conflicts in Europe, Asia and the Middle East demonstrate a return of nuclear power to the balance of power. Arsenals are being modernized and expanded, while arms control is collapsing. This research program aims to analyze these phenomena.

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Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Temptations. Lessons Learned from Regional Instability

Date de publication
11 September 2025
Accroche

Saudi Arabia’s integration in the international arena and regional stability, notably through reducing its dependence on fossil energies, are crucial elements for the success of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030, the Crown Prince’s top priority. However, Mohammed bin Salman’s declarations in 2018 and 2021, indicating that “if Iran develops a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible”, combined with the recent strikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, do not bode well for the future of the Kingdom, the region and the non-proliferation regime at large.

Nour EID
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The Future of Air Superiority. Command of the Air in High Intensity Warfare

Date de publication
24 January 2025
Accroche

Air superiority, understood as control of the air, is a cornerstone of the Western art of warfare. It is a decisive condition, albeit not sufficient by itself, to achieve military victory, as it enables the concentration of air power toward the achievement of wider strategic objectives and protects other components from unbearable attrition levels. It is best achieved through the offensive use of air power in a joint effort to neutralize the enemy’s air power.

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Europe Uncovered?

Date de publication
09 September 2025
Accroche

As Russia continues to threaten Europe, the Trump administration is making no secret of its desire to withdraw—at least partially—from the defense of the Old
Continent in order to focus on strategic competition with China. It is thus putting pressure on its European allies to increase their investment in the military sector. The NATO Summit in The Hague in June 2025 resulted in ambitious commitments by member states to increase their defense spending.

Élie TENENBAUM Guillaume GARNIER
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How should Britain and France cooperate to realise the Northwood Declaration?

Date de publication
18 July 2025
Accroche

During his state visit to the United Kingdom (UK) last week, Emmanuel Macron, President of France, signed a joint declaration with Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, on nuclear cooperation between Britain and France. The Northwood Declaration highlights that while both countries’ nuclear arsenals remain sovereign, cooperation on nuclear deterrence can ‘contribute significantly’ to the security of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the Euro-Atlantic region.

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Conventionalizing Deterrence? U.S. Prompt Strike Programs and Their Limits