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Héloïse Fayet, Research Fellow and Head of the Deterrence & Proliferation Research Program at the Institut Français des Relations Internationales

France’s new nuclear posture has been welcomed broadly across Europe—but it has also raised expectations.

Initial reactions show that Macron’s announcement has reassured many partners. European governments quoted in his March 2 speech issued positive and coordinated statements afterwards, signaling support for the president’s willingness to engage more openly on nuclear deterrence. Interest is emerging beyond the forward deterrence framework: Norway and Finland have indicated openness to closer dialogue with France, while Italian commentators complained about not being included in the initial discussions.

This is where the real test begins. Macron’s proposals, such as setting up nuclear steering groups with seven countries, in addition to the one that already exists between France and the UK, create momentum—but they also generate expectations. For these initiatives to matter, they will need to survive the end of Macron’s presidency and go beyond dialogues on threat assessment and doctrinal explanations. Joint exercises, scenario-based discussions, and transparency around vital interests are essential in creating a sense of shared destiny without altering the fundamentals of French sovereignty.

Finally, nuclear reassurance cannot compensate for Europe’s conventional weaknesses. Unless European countries strengthen their conventional deterrence, nuclear weapons alone will not be enough to sustain confidence.

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> Read the full commentary on Carnegie's website.