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Conventionalizing Deterrence? U.S. Prompt Strike Programs and Their Limits

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Proliferation Papers
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About a decade ago, the U.S. started to examine options to develop and acquire Conventional Prompt Global Strike capabilities. This move fits in an effort to conventionalize deterrence, an effort initiated decades before and undertaken for profound and diverse motives. Although it has been renewed under the Obama administration, which aims to reduce the U.S. reliance on nuclear weapons, this ambition has resulted in very little concrete progress.

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Budget cuts to defense spending and technological obstacles have forced the Pentagon to scale back its plans in terms of conventional strategic strike programs. Despite these setbacks, ten years from now the U.S. may well possess a conventional prompt strike capability in its arsenal. As a consequence, this paper also highlights some longer-term, operational and strategic issues that might arise from a context of crisis or war in which prompt strike capabilities could be used, and attempts to shed new light on the potential values these capabilities might have for U.S. national security.

 

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978-2-36567-340-2

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Conventionalizing Deterrence? U.S. Prompt Strike Programs and Their Limits

Decoration
Author(s)
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Corentin BRUSTLEIN

Intitulé du poste

Research fellow, coordinator of the Security Studies Center and head of the Deterrence and Proliferation program

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 A soldier watching a sunset on an armored infantry fighting vehicle
Security Studies Center
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Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.

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Deterrence and Proliferation
Accroche centre

The conflicts in Europe, Asia and the Middle East demonstrate a return of nuclear power to the balance of power. Arsenals are being modernized and expanded, while arms control is collapsing. This research program aims to analyze these phenomena.

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Main Battle Tank: Obsolescence or Renaissance?

Date de publication
17 November 2025
Accroche

Since February 2022, Russian and Ukrainian forces combined have lost more than 5,000 battle tanks, a much higher volume than all the European armor combined. Spearhead of the Soviet doctrine from which the two belligerents came, tanks were deployed in large numbers from the first day and proved to be a prime target for UAVs that became more numerous and efficient over the months. The large number of UAV strike videos against tanks has also led a certain number of observers to conclude, once again, that armor is obsolete on a modern battlefield. This approach must, however, be nuanced by a deeper study of the losses and their origin, UAVs rarely being the sole origin of the loss itself, often caused by a combination of factors such as mines, artillery or other anti-tank weapons.

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Mapping the MilTech War: Eight Lessons from Ukraine’s Battlefield

Date de publication
12 February 2026
Accroche

This report maps out the evolution of key technologies that have emerged or developed in the last 4 years of the war in Ukraine. Its goal is to derive the lessons the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) could learn to strengthen its defensive capabilities and prepare for modern war, which is large-scale and conventional in nature.

Élie TENENBAUM Bohdan KOSTIUK Daryna-Maryna PATIUK Anastasya SHAPOCHKINA
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"Iron Swords" A Military Analysis of Israel's War in Gaza

Date de publication
02 October 2025
Accroche

On October 7, 2023, Hamas' attack, dubbed “Al-Aqsa Flood,” caused a major shock and led Israel to launch the longest war in its history. Operation “Iron Swords” was notable for its unprecedented intensity, both in terms of the massive ground forces deployed and the firepower used.

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Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Temptations. Lessons Learned from Regional Instability

Date de publication
11 September 2025
Accroche

Saudi Arabia’s integration in the international arena and regional stability, notably through reducing its dependence on fossil energies, are crucial elements for the success of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030, the Crown Prince’s top priority. However, Mohammed bin Salman’s declarations in 2018 and 2021, indicating that “if Iran develops a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible”, combined with the recent strikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, do not bode well for the future of the Kingdom, the region and the non-proliferation regime at large.

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Conventionalizing Deterrence? U.S. Prompt Strike Programs and Their Limits