The CDU in the 2025 Elections: A Road to the Chancellery, Paved with Challenges
After a legislative session in the opposition, the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU) looks set to win the snap elections in February 2025. It is very likely that the country’s future chancellor will be Friedrich Merz.
A strong opponent of the “traffic light” coalition since becoming leader of the party and parliamentary group in 2021, Merz's program is radically opposed to that of the SPD on all points except pensions, and to that of the Greens except on foreign policy issues. Embodying the right wing of the CDU for several decades, Merz is seeking to counter the rise of the AfD with an economically liberal and socially conservative program. But this expected victory comes against an extremely difficult context for the future government, whoever it may be. Numerous issues, in particular immigration, the country’s economic weakness, the debt crisis and the Ukrainian crisis, will determine both the CDU’s campaign and its margin for maneuver if it returns to power. This election is set to be one of the most ideologically polarized in years and the formation of future coalitions with the SPD or the Green Party will undoubtedly be extremely difficult.
Martin Baloge holds a PhD in political science from the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne and is a lecturer at the Catholic University of Lille within the Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences (Laboratory MUSE). He recently published ‘Life and Death of the Wealth Tax: Struggles for Interest Representation in the National Assembly and the Bundestag’ (Éditions de la Maison des sciences de l’Homme, 2022) and ‘Politics in Germany’ (Éditions La Découverte, 2024).
This publication is available in French (PDF): "La CDU lors des élections de 2025 : un chemin tracé vers la chancellerie, mais parsemé d’embûches".
Available in:
Themes and regions
DOI
Notes of Cerfa, No. 181, February 2025
Share
Download the full analysis
This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.
The CDU in the 2025 Elections: A Road to the Chancellery, Paved with Challenges
Author(s)
Related centers and programs
Discover our other research centers and programs
The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa)
The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) was created in 1954 by an inter-governmental agreement between the Federal Republic of Germany and France, in order to raise awareness of Germany in France and analyze Franco-German relations, including in their European and international dimensions. In its conferences and seminars, which bring together experts, political leaders, senior decision-makers and representatives of civil society from both countries, Cerfa develops the Franco-German debate and stimulates political proposals. It regularly publishes studies through two collections: Cerfa notes and studies as well as Franco-German visions.
Cerfa maintains close relations with the network of German foundations and think tanks. In addition to its research and debate activities, Cerfa promotes the emergence of a new Franco-German generation through original cooperation programs. This is how in 2021-2022, Cerfa led a program on multilateralism with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Paris. This program is aimed at young professionals from both countries interested in the issues of multilateralism in the context of their activities. It covered a wide range of themes relating to multilateralism, such as international trade, health, human rights and migration, non-proliferation and disarmament. Previously, Cerfa had participated in the Franco-German future dialogue, co-led with the DGAP from 2007 to 2020, and supported by the Robert Bosch Foundation and the Daniel Vernet group (formerly the Franco-German Reflection Group) which was founded in 2014 upon the initiative of the Genshagen Foundation.
Find out more
Discover all our analyses
France-Germany: Overcoming Differences to Strengthen European Sovereignty
The Franco-German “reset” launched with Friedrich Merz’s appointment as Chancellor in May 2025 and given concrete form at the Franco-German Council of Ministers (FGCM) in Toulon in August 2025 was intended to address the structural challenges affecting the bilateral relationship. Yet it is clear that these ambitions have only been partially translated into concrete action. Since the beginning of 2026, Franco-German relations have entered a phase in which short-term challenges have combined with deeper divergences over priorities, policy approaches, and strategic culture.
Under construction: Europe’s economic repositioning in a fragmented international order
„Under Destruction“– this was this year’s motto at the Munich Security Conference. A motto that applies both to security and economy in an increasingly fragile international system. In 2024, Mario Draghi’s report on the EU’s competitiveness rang the alarm bell: Europe is slipping behind the US and China, European companies struggle with Brussels' bureaucracy, and the internal market is too fragmented. However, two years later only about 15 % of his recommendations were implemented: the wake-up call was not heard.
Germany in the Shadow of the United States, Russia, and China – Systemic Paradigm Shifts
Since reunification, Germany has built its prosperity on an international order based on free trade, multilateralism, and geopolitical stability. This model relied on three relationships considered complementary: U.S. military protection, Russian energy supplies, and economic integration with China. For several decades, Berlin viewed these interdependencies as factors contributing to peace, growth, and security.
France and EU Enlargement: From Strategic Hesitation to a Geopolitical Shift
Paris has come a long way in its approach to enlarging the European Union. However, French support remains fragile, due in part to a lack of public support.