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Russian Military Manpower After Two and a Half Years of War in Ukraine

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Russian Military Manpower After Two and a Half Years of War in Ukraine, Yury FEDOROV
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In addition to a military victory in Ukraine, the Russian leadership is planning to build up sizable troop formations for a possible conflict with NATO in the Baltic region and the Kola Peninsula. In particular, current plans aim for the military manpower to grow by about 350,000, reaching a total of 1.5 million soldiers and commanders. In the context of the current conflict in Ukraine, this cannot be accomplished without a new wave of mass mobilization. 

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Soldiers of the Russian assault in combat. June 11, 2023.
Soldiers of the Russian assault in combat. June 11, 2023.
© Dmitriy Kandinskiy/Shutterstock.com
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The irrecoverable personnel losses per month of about 30,000 soldiers in 2024 are about equivalent to the influx of contract soldiers and volunteers, constituting the combat-capable core of the Russian military manpower over the same period. In turn, the implementation of this new wave of mobilization is being postponed due to the Kremlin’s concerns about potentially negative domestic political consequences, as well as the lack of command personnel and weapons for new units. By and large, the longer the war in Ukraine lasts, the more the Russian military machine deteriorates. Consequently, by providing Ukraine with the necessary assistance to continue the war, the West is weakening Russia’s military potential and increasing the time required for it to recover its armed forces after the war. Yet, the pressure of the war on Ukrainian society and its political system may cause a political crisis with unpredictable domestic and international outcomes.

 

Dr. Yury Fedorov is a PhD-holding author and expert on Russian Politics and Military Affairs. He worked at the Institute for US and Canada Studies and the Institute for World Economy and International Affairs, both based in Moscow. He spent several years teaching at the Moscow Institute for International Relations as a Professor. After leaving Russia in 2006, Yury Fedorov has lived in Europe, where he began by serving as a researcher at Chatham House in the United Kingdom. Since 2008, he has worked as a journalist in the Czech Republic. He is a member of the Czech Republic’s Syndicate of Journalists and author of the Radio Svoboda Russian Service. His recent publications include his last book, The Ukrainian Front of the Third World War (2024).

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979-10-373-0947-1

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Russian Military Manpower After Two and a Half Years of War in Ukraine

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Author(s)
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Russie, Eurasie, Carte
Russia/Eurasia Center
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Founded in 2005 within Ifri, the Russia/Eurasia Center conducts research and organizes debates on Russia, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus. Its goal is to understand and anticipate the evolution of this complex and rapidly changing geographical area in order to enrich public discourse in France and Europe and to assist in strategic, political, and economic decision-making.

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Date de publication
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Accroche

The future of Moldova’s foreign agenda will undergo a stress test during the upcoming presidential elections on October 20, 2024.

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Russian Strategic Thinking and Culture Before and After February 24, 2022: Political-Strategic Aspects

Date de publication
26 September 2024
Accroche

Written by Dimitri Minic, the scientific article "Russian Strategic Thinking and Culture Before and After February 24, 2022: Political-Strategic Aspects" in Russia’s war against Ukraine: Complexity of Contemporary Clausewitzian War by the National Defence University Department of Warfare, Helsinki 2024.

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Russia and the New BRICS Countries: Potentials and Limitations of a Scientific and Technological Cooperation

Date de publication
23 September 2024
Accroche

At the fifteenth BRICS summit, held in Johannesburg, South Africa, from August 22 to 24, 2023, a resolution was adopted to extend an invitation to six new countries to join the organization: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). All of these countries except Argentina duly became members of BRICS in 2024, with the expanded group known as BRICS+. In addition to the political and economic advantages, it is assumed that the incorporation of these new countries could potentially facilitate their scientific and technological development.

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The South Caucasus: A New Strategic Space?

Date de publication
10 September 2024
Accroche

The states of the South Caucasus are trying to find their footing in an increasingly fragmented international landscape.

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Soldiers of the Russian assault in combat. June 11, 2023.
© Dmitriy Kandinskiy/Shutterstock.com

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Russian Military Manpower After Two and a Half Years of War in Ukraine