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Russian Military Manpower After Two and a Half Years of War in Ukraine

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Russian Military Manpower After Two and a Half Years of War in Ukraine, Yury FEDOROV
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In addition to a military victory in Ukraine, the Russian leadership is planning to build up sizable troop formations for a possible conflict with NATO in the Baltic region and the Kola Peninsula. In particular, current plans aim for the military manpower to grow by about 350,000, reaching a total of 1.5 million soldiers and commanders. In the context of the current conflict in Ukraine, this cannot be accomplished without a new wave of mass mobilization. 

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Soldiers of the Russian assault in combat. June 11, 2023.
Soldiers of the Russian assault in combat. June 11, 2023.
© Dmitriy Kandinskiy/Shutterstock.com
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The irrecoverable personnel losses per month of about 30,000 soldiers in 2024 are about equivalent to the influx of contract soldiers and volunteers, constituting the combat-capable core of the Russian military manpower over the same period. In turn, the implementation of this new wave of mobilization is being postponed due to the Kremlin’s concerns about potentially negative domestic political consequences, as well as the lack of command personnel and weapons for new units. By and large, the longer the war in Ukraine lasts, the more the Russian military machine deteriorates. Consequently, by providing Ukraine with the necessary assistance to continue the war, the West is weakening Russia’s military potential and increasing the time required for it to recover its armed forces after the war. Yet, the pressure of the war on Ukrainian society and its political system may cause a political crisis with unpredictable domestic and international outcomes.

 

Dr. Yury Fedorov is a PhD-holding author and expert on Russian Politics and Military Affairs. He worked at the Institute for US and Canada Studies and the Institute for World Economy and International Affairs, both based in Moscow. He spent several years teaching at the Moscow Institute for International Relations as a Professor. After leaving Russia in 2006, Yury Fedorov has lived in Europe, where he began by serving as a researcher at Chatham House in the United Kingdom. Since 2008, he has worked as a journalist in the Czech Republic. He is a member of the Czech Republic’s Syndicate of Journalists and author of the Radio Svoboda Russian Service. His recent publications include his last book, The Ukrainian Front of the Third World War (2024).

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979-10-373-0947-1

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Russian Military Manpower After Two and a Half Years of War in Ukraine

Decoration
Author(s)
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Russie, Eurasie, Carte
Russia/Eurasia Center
Accroche centre

Founded in 2005 within Ifri, the Russia/Eurasia Center conducts research and organizes debates on Russia, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus. Its goal is to understand and anticipate the evolution of this complex and rapidly changing geographical area in order to enrich public discourse in France and Europe and to assist in strategic, political, and economic decision-making.

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Date de publication
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Accroche

The traditional and high-intensity war that has occurred in Ukraine since Russia decided to invade raises a key issue: did post-soviet Russian strategic thought really prepare Russia for waging this war?

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Date de publication
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Accroche

From the outset of its “special military operation” (SVO) against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russia, which possesses one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals, has adopted aggressive deterrence measures and a resolutely menacing rhetorical stance.

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Moldova's Crucial Parliamentary Election. What's at Stake?

Date de publication
22 September 2025
Accroche

On the occasion of Moldova’s National Day, August 27, 2025, Chișinău hosted a high-level European delegation composed of Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz and Donald Tusk, who sought to reaffirm their support for the country’s sovereignty and pro-European course. This unprecedented and highly symbolic visit took place at a pivotal moment. Moldova is preparing for decisive parliamentary elections on September 28, whose stakes extend far beyond the national framework.

Florent PARMENTIER
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War as Social Elevator: The Socioeconomic Impact of Russian Military Keynesianism

Date de publication
19 June 2025
Accroche

In order to finance its war effort, the Russian state has spent substantial sums of money and implemented a form of “military Keynesianism” that is transforming society at both the socioeconomic and cultural levels. This has partially rebalanced the wide disparities in wealth, levels of consumption, and social prestige in Russian society by granting significant financial and symbolic advantages to peripheral Russia, which has long been overlooked by the central government. 

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Soldiers of the Russian assault in combat. June 11, 2023.
© Dmitriy Kandinskiy/Shutterstock.com

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Russian Military Manpower After Two and a Half Years of War in Ukraine