East Asia Confronted with China
China is now an undeniable heavyweight on the international scene, wielding a remarkable range of political strategies. Studying its position in the surrounding area of Southeast Asia in relation to Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, as well as Australia, gives us an understanding of both the strength and the limits of such a diverse range of actions.
Military aggression in the China Seas, seduction by way of vaccines, economic control, investments wielded as tools of influence, attempts at political takeover, the marginalization of outside (i.e., Western) players in favor of organizations based within the region . . . anything goes in China’s bid to reinforce the centrality of its power in the face of states that are torn between their interests in neighboring countries and their desire for independence. The balance of power in Southeast Asia could well be symbolic of the world to come.
COVID-19 has not upset the geopolitical rationales at work across the world: the geography of vaccine distribution clearly shows it. This distribution, which broadly corresponds with the assertiveness of global powers in their respective zones of influence, reveals a geopolitics of immunity. On the other hand, the general consensus of those who have relied upon globalization up to now has been called into question, in particular with regard to the sustainability of public debt. How will they close the floodgates that were opened during the public funding crisis? Will the debts that were created therein be paid back, and if so, how?
This issue is available in French only.
CASE FILE
EASTERN ASIA CONFRONTED WITH CHINA
China/Japan: Redefining Coexistence, by Céline Pajon
China/South Korea: Mutual Frustration, by Antoine Bondaz
Beijing: Taiwan's Worst and Greatest Enemy, by Marc Julienne and John Seaman
China and South-East Asia: Has the Die Been Cast, by Sophie Boisseau du Rocher
Australian Resistance in response to China, by Nadège Rolland
COUNTER ANALYSIS
HOW TO DEAL WITH DEBT?
Is Public Debt a Problem?, by François Geerolf and Pierre Jacquet
Public Debt Outlook, by François Ecalle
CURRENT AFFAIRS
COVID-19: The Geopolitics of Herd Immunity, by Patrick Allard (In French only - COVID-19 : géopolitique de l'immunité collective)
How Can American Democracy Be Fixed?, by Laurence Nardon
BAROMETERS
Strait of Hormuz: The War of Nerves, by Morgan Paglia (In French only - Détroit d'Ormuz : la guerre des nerfs)
Dubai's Model Versus Abu Dhabi's Centralism, by Matthieu Etourneau
Are the two Koreas Perpetually Moving Towards Peace?, by Rémy Hémez
REFLECTIONS
Europe: Power and Finance, by Sylvie Goulard
BOOK REVIEWS
Toxic Politics: China’s Environmental Health Crisis and Its Challenge to the Chinese State, by Yanzhong Huang
China Goes Green : Coercive Environmentalism for a Troubled Planet, by Yifei Li et Judith Shapiro
By John Seaman
Download the full analysis
This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.
East Asia Confronted with China
Find out more
Discover all our analysesWars in the Next Decade
Forecasting in areas of strategy is particularly delicate as predictions may impact the course of events. While several major trends in the evolution of conflicts during the next decade can be identified, precise forecasts are impossible. Yet one thing is certain: in the next 10 years, decision-makers face unknown risks of significant consequence.
After the Demographic Explosion
Demographic forecasting is not an exact science. UN projections, which suggest that the world population may rise to 11.2 billion in 2100, could be overestimates. Indeed, fertility could fall more rapidly and life expectancy may rise less than expected. The Sahel is set to experience the most spectacular demographic explosion, but this will not necessarily lead to massive migration to Europe.
When Technology Shapes the World
New technologies, particularly in cyberspace, have a strong impact on international relations and conflict. Malicious actors, be they lstates or non-state actors, have developed sophisticated means of influence. They tend to coordinate their physical and cyber activities with ever-greater precision. The security strategies of Western states need to change as a result and cease operating in silos.
Europe in Ten Years
In the last 10 years, European integration has suffered several shocks. These shocks have challenged the historical narrative of the European Union, and have profoundly affected policies, as well as support by the peoples of Europe for the EU project. The real risk of disintegration can only be avoided if Member States accept to overhaul European integration, based on the idea of “civilizing globalization” and adopting corresponding policies grounded in solidarity.