Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa is not monolithic. While crises in the Sahel have attracted a great deal of attention, other regions also need to be monitored, and not just through the prism of security.
Related Subjects
Sudan Wartime Online Propaganda
In the Sudan conflict, the propaganda battle between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on mainstream and social media makes it hard to distinguish real, false, and manipulated information. Furthermore, the lack of field press coverage allows fake and misleading news to spread more easily. Although the SAF and RSF work hard to shape the war narrative by building large supporter networks and using various methods such as disinformation and censorship, it is clear they no longer fully control the flow of information. Social media analysis shows that Sudanese politicians, military figures, influencers, and followers weave a tangled web of exchanges filled with rivalries, lies, and propaganda.
Claiming "The People": Youth Booms, Ailing Authoritarians and "Populist" Politics in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania
This study analyses the emergence of so-called “populist” political tendencies in three East African countries: Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. It builds its analysis on a wider discussion of the term “populism”, its use and applicability in (eastern) African settings before going on to examine the drivers of three cases of populism: William Ruto’s 2022 election victory in Kenya and the “Hustler Nation”; Bobi Wine’s opposition to Yoweri Museveni in Uganda; and John Magufuli highly personal style of government in Tanzania.
Gabon: Has an — Almost — Exemplary Transition Produced a New Political Model?
In two rounds of voting, on September 27 and October 11, 2025, the citizens of Gabon elected the members of both their local councils and the new national assembly. This marked almost the final stage of political transition, little more than two years after the coup d’état that had overthrown the more than five decades old dynastic regime of the Bongos — Omar, the father, who died in office in 2009, and then his son Ali, who is now in exile.
Ramses 2026. A New Chessboard
A world chessboard chopped up by the vertigo of power...
Middle Power Lawfare : South Africa, International Justice, and the Gaza Crisis
The intensification of violence in Gaza following Hamas’s 7 October 2023 Al Aqsa Flood attack and Israel’s military response prompted a broader reassessment of global diplomacy. Longstanding geopolitical alignments were disrupted, and questions about humanitarian obligations, institutional accountability, and the limits of state conduct returned to the centre of international debate.
“Although mining is a long-term business, very few companies do prospective studies”
As global demand for critical minerals accelerates, Central Africa finds itself once again at the heart of an extractive race—this time driven by the energy transition. Thierry Vircoulon, Associate Research Fellow at Ifri's Sub-Saharan Africa Center, and Coordinator of its Observatory of Central and Southern Africa, shares a sharp and sobering perspective. Speaking ahead of the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business webinar “Securing Critical Minerals” (2 July), he explores the paradoxes of resource governance, the rise of China, and why “clean energy” still runs on dirty politics. A must-read for those navigating the fault lines of global supply chains.
Multilateralisms: Survival or Revival?
The organized multilateralism born out of the Second World War and the Cold War, and revived in the 1990s with the dream of a world of peaceful “global governance,” has fizzled out. The erosion of the large universal frameworks (United Nations, World Trade Organization, arms control and disarmament, international criminal justice, and so on) did not give way to a void but to an excess: a multitude of agreements and schemes that bore witness to the accelerated rebuilding of international relationships. Will institutional anarchy and the open competition of interests visible in uninhibited struggles for power be able to organize themselves around common fundamental interests in the future?
The Contradictory Impacts of Western Sanctions on Economic Relations between Russia and Sub-Saharan Africa
How does Russia maintain economic ties with Africa despite Western sanctions? An analysis of investments, trade, and the circumvention strategies deployed by Moscow.
The Revenue Sources Sustaining Sudan’s Civil War. Lessons for the year 2023
Wars require money and resources, and often, most conflicts involve controlling sources of income and supply lines or denying them to enemies. This has been the case in Sudan’s past conflicts and is again as the civil war—between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), commanded by General Abdelfattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by General Mohammed Hamdan Daglo “Hemedti” —has sunk into a protracted conflict.
Doing Politics in African Cities Actors, Causes and Forms of Urban Social Mobilization
From Maputo to Nairobi and from Lagos to Dakar: recently, African cities have been the theatre of mobilizations by groups of young protesters.
Replay of Ifri's webinar held on April 17, 2025.
France Contested in Overseas Territories - Politique étrangère, Vol. 90, No. 1, Spring 2025
New Caledonia, Mayotte: France's overseas territories were severely shaken in 2024. Beyond explanations of the economic situation, the place of these overseas territories in French policies and strategies is once again being called into question.
Are France's overseas territories the remnants of an outdated colonialism? Or, on the contrary, are they supports for an extended French presence that the opening-up of the world makes indispensable, and barriers raised here and there against the appetites of new powers? In any case, what policies should the Hexagone pursue in these regions, to promote better development and more effective integration into their environment? And is the legal status of these overseas territories untouchable?
Anglo-Kenyan Relations (1920-2024) : Conflict, Alliance and a Redemptive Arc
This article provides an evidentiary basis for postcolonial policy in its analysis of Anglo-Kenyan relations in a decolonization era.
The United Nations Mission in Congo or the exemplary uselessness of the United Nations peacekeepers
During the M23 conflict in 2012-2013 in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the United Nations (UN) took the diplomatic initiative (by initiating the Addis Ababa agreement) and the military initiative (by launching a coordinated counter-offensive with the Congolese army). Since the resurgence of this conflict in 2022, the United Nations, which still has more than 10,000 peacekeepers deployed in eastern DRC, no longer plays any role.
France starts 2025 with fresh controversy, questions over Africa
France starts 2025 with a further drawdown of its military presence in its former African colonies, and fresh tensions ignited this week with controversial remarks by French President Emmanuel Macron.
City Diplomacy and Human Mobility in Africa. Protecting Refugees and Migrants along the Central Mediterranean Route from the East and the Horn of Africa
Cities face constraints to work on migration and refugee issues, often due to a lack of decentralisation and resource constraints. Adopting an inclusive city approach can safeguard local authorities’ commitment towards providing protection to residents regardless of status, while not overstepping legal mandates.
Rebooting Italy's Africa Policy: Making the Mattei Plan Work
Against the backdrop of increasing anti-French rhetoric across parts of Francophone Africa, the relative failure of the counterinsurgency operation in the central Sahel (Operation Barkhane) and diplomatic rifts with several Sahelian countries, Paris has been rethinking its relationship with the continent for several years now. As a former imperial power that has seen its colonial domain in Africa gain independence between 1956 (Morocco-Tunisia) and 1977 (Djibouti), France has invented two successive roles for itself in Africa since 1960, particularly in French-speaking sub-Saharan Africa.
From Crisis Hotspots to Convening Powers. African Cities Launch Diplomacy to Create Climate Mobility Partnerships
African local governments cannot afford to turn into climate mobility hotspots without taking proactive action – drawing on local knowledge, convening power and access to affected communities.
The dilemma of the Franco-African military relationship: reinvent or turn the page?
The origins of military presence and cooperation in Africa can be traced back to the tacit decolonization pact between the countries of French-speaking Africa. This cooperation led to the creation of African armies in the former colonies, as part of a project to prevent the spread of communism and maintain France's influence in the newly independent countries.
The Evolution of City Diplomacy in Africa: Impact, Potential, and Ongoing Challenges of African Cities’ International Activities.
Over the past decades, African cities have ranked among the leading players in the evolution of city diplomacy. Indeed, municipalities across the continent have gone beyond simply adapting to shifting trends in international cooperation. They have been shaping the current partnership approach that sees local authorities worldwide working together to pursue shared goals and address common urban challenges such as climate change, migration, and social justice.
The High Authority for Peacebuilding (HACP) in Niger 2011-2023. Placing the State at the heart of conflict prevention and management.
Like other Sahelian countries, Niger has been affected by terrorism for almost two decades now. This issue has highlighted both the limits of these countries’ security systems and, more profoundly, their inability to offer stability to the populations of certain parts of the country. In a way, these “jihadized insurgencies” are a continuity of groups that regularly take up arms against central states.
Sudan Wartime Online Propaganda
In the Sudan conflict, the propaganda battle between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on mainstream and social media makes it hard to distinguish real, false, and manipulated information. Furthermore, the lack of field press coverage allows fake and misleading news to spread more easily. Although the SAF and RSF work hard to shape the war narrative by building large supporter networks and using various methods such as disinformation and censorship, it is clear they no longer fully control the flow of information. Social media analysis shows that Sudanese politicians, military figures, influencers, and followers weave a tangled web of exchanges filled with rivalries, lies, and propaganda.
Claiming "The People": Youth Booms, Ailing Authoritarians and "Populist" Politics in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania
This study analyses the emergence of so-called “populist” political tendencies in three East African countries: Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. It builds its analysis on a wider discussion of the term “populism”, its use and applicability in (eastern) African settings before going on to examine the drivers of three cases of populism: William Ruto’s 2022 election victory in Kenya and the “Hustler Nation”; Bobi Wine’s opposition to Yoweri Museveni in Uganda; and John Magufuli highly personal style of government in Tanzania.
Gabon: Has an — Almost — Exemplary Transition Produced a New Political Model?
In two rounds of voting, on September 27 and October 11, 2025, the citizens of Gabon elected the members of both their local councils and the new national assembly. This marked almost the final stage of political transition, little more than two years after the coup d’état that had overthrown the more than five decades old dynastic regime of the Bongos — Omar, the father, who died in office in 2009, and then his son Ali, who is now in exile.
Ramses 2026. A New Chessboard
A world chessboard chopped up by the vertigo of power...
Middle Power Lawfare : South Africa, International Justice, and the Gaza Crisis
The intensification of violence in Gaza following Hamas’s 7 October 2023 Al Aqsa Flood attack and Israel’s military response prompted a broader reassessment of global diplomacy. Longstanding geopolitical alignments were disrupted, and questions about humanitarian obligations, institutional accountability, and the limits of state conduct returned to the centre of international debate.
Multilateralisms: Survival or Revival?
The organized multilateralism born out of the Second World War and the Cold War, and revived in the 1990s with the dream of a world of peaceful “global governance,” has fizzled out. The erosion of the large universal frameworks (United Nations, World Trade Organization, arms control and disarmament, international criminal justice, and so on) did not give way to a void but to an excess: a multitude of agreements and schemes that bore witness to the accelerated rebuilding of international relationships. Will institutional anarchy and the open competition of interests visible in uninhibited struggles for power be able to organize themselves around common fundamental interests in the future?
The Contradictory Impacts of Western Sanctions on Economic Relations between Russia and Sub-Saharan Africa
How does Russia maintain economic ties with Africa despite Western sanctions? An analysis of investments, trade, and the circumvention strategies deployed by Moscow.
The Revenue Sources Sustaining Sudan’s Civil War. Lessons for the year 2023
Wars require money and resources, and often, most conflicts involve controlling sources of income and supply lines or denying them to enemies. This has been the case in Sudan’s past conflicts and is again as the civil war—between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), commanded by General Abdelfattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by General Mohammed Hamdan Daglo “Hemedti” —has sunk into a protracted conflict.
Anglo-Kenyan Relations (1920-2024) : Conflict, Alliance and a Redemptive Arc
This article provides an evidentiary basis for postcolonial policy in its analysis of Anglo-Kenyan relations in a decolonization era.
The United Nations Mission in Congo or the exemplary uselessness of the United Nations peacekeepers
During the M23 conflict in 2012-2013 in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the United Nations (UN) took the diplomatic initiative (by initiating the Addis Ababa agreement) and the military initiative (by launching a coordinated counter-offensive with the Congolese army). Since the resurgence of this conflict in 2022, the United Nations, which still has more than 10,000 peacekeepers deployed in eastern DRC, no longer plays any role.
Barriers and Adaptations To Rural-Urban Mobility: A Focus of the Milk Value Chain in Peri-Urban Nairobi, Kenya
Kenya has per capita milk consumption of 110 litters of milk per year, making the inhabitants the largest milk consumers in sub-Saharan Africa. The daily sector requires functional infrastructure adapted to weather conditions, as well as affordable and easily accessible means of transport. However, only 18% of Kenya's road network is considered to be in good condition . As a result, farmers take alternative routes, reduce the number of trips, or limit their sales to the urban periphery. The daily transport of milk along the 47-kilometer urban-rural continuum in the peri-urban area north of Nairobi illustrates the reciprocal links between urban and rural areas and the dynamics of peri-urbanization. The challenges of the flow of milk along the value chain are intrinsically linked to those of mobility, which creates the connection between production, the exchange of goods and services, and consumption.
City Diplomacy and Human Mobility in Africa. Protecting Refugees and Migrants along the Central Mediterranean Route from the East and the Horn of Africa
Cities face constraints to work on migration and refugee issues, often due to a lack of decentralisation and resource constraints. Adopting an inclusive city approach can safeguard local authorities’ commitment towards providing protection to residents regardless of status, while not overstepping legal mandates.
Rebooting Italy's Africa Policy: Making the Mattei Plan Work
Against the backdrop of increasing anti-French rhetoric across parts of Francophone Africa, the relative failure of the counterinsurgency operation in the central Sahel (Operation Barkhane) and diplomatic rifts with several Sahelian countries, Paris has been rethinking its relationship with the continent for several years now. As a former imperial power that has seen its colonial domain in Africa gain independence between 1956 (Morocco-Tunisia) and 1977 (Djibouti), France has invented two successive roles for itself in Africa since 1960, particularly in French-speaking sub-Saharan Africa.
From Crisis Hotspots to Convening Powers. African Cities Launch Diplomacy to Create Climate Mobility Partnerships
African local governments cannot afford to turn into climate mobility hotspots without taking proactive action – drawing on local knowledge, convening power and access to affected communities.
The dilemma of the Franco-African military relationship: reinvent or turn the page?
The origins of military presence and cooperation in Africa can be traced back to the tacit decolonization pact between the countries of French-speaking Africa. This cooperation led to the creation of African armies in the former colonies, as part of a project to prevent the spread of communism and maintain France's influence in the newly independent countries.
The Evolution of City Diplomacy in Africa: Impact, Potential, and Ongoing Challenges of African Cities’ International Activities.
Over the past decades, African cities have ranked among the leading players in the evolution of city diplomacy. Indeed, municipalities across the continent have gone beyond simply adapting to shifting trends in international cooperation. They have been shaping the current partnership approach that sees local authorities worldwide working together to pursue shared goals and address common urban challenges such as climate change, migration, and social justice.
The High Authority for Peacebuilding (HACP) in Niger 2011-2023. Placing the State at the heart of conflict prevention and management.
Like other Sahelian countries, Niger has been affected by terrorism for almost two decades now. This issue has highlighted both the limits of these countries’ security systems and, more profoundly, their inability to offer stability to the populations of certain parts of the country. In a way, these “jihadized insurgencies” are a continuity of groups that regularly take up arms against central states.
Can carbon markets make a breakthrough at COP29?
Voluntary carbon markets (VCMs) have a strong potential, notably to help bridge the climate finance gap, especially for Africa.
Kenya’s Spiritual President and The Making of a Born-Again Republic: William-Ruto, Kenya’s Evangelicals and Religious Mobilizations in African Electoral Politics
Over the last two decade, the growing influence of Evangelicals and their leaders in electoral politics is one of the most significant developments in the East African region and the Horn of Africa. Their numerical and demographic growth seems to go together with their growing influence in these countries’ political scenes, especially in the spheres of electoral politics, society, and governance.
Chad: from Deby to Deby. Recipes for a successful succession (2021-2024)
As in Togo and Gabon, the transition that took place in Chad from 2021 to
2024 resulted in a dynastic succession. Mahamat Idriss Deby succeeded his
father, Idriss Deby Itno, who was President of Chad from 1996 to 2021. While
the majority of Chadians were hoping for a change of government, the “Deby
system” has managed to hold on.
“Although mining is a long-term business, very few companies do prospective studies”
As global demand for critical minerals accelerates, Central Africa finds itself once again at the heart of an extractive race—this time driven by the energy transition. Thierry Vircoulon, Associate Research Fellow at Ifri's Sub-Saharan Africa Center, and Coordinator of its Observatory of Central and Southern Africa, shares a sharp and sobering perspective. Speaking ahead of the ESSEC Institute for Geopolitics & Business webinar “Securing Critical Minerals” (2 July), he explores the paradoxes of resource governance, the rise of China, and why “clean energy” still runs on dirty politics. A must-read for those navigating the fault lines of global supply chains.
France starts 2025 with fresh controversy, questions over Africa
France starts 2025 with a further drawdown of its military presence in its former African colonies, and fresh tensions ignited this week with controversial remarks by French President Emmanuel Macron.
After the success of its army in Mozambique, Rwanda expects economic rewards
Companies affiliated with the powerful Crystal Ventures holding company, the financial arm of Kigali's ruling party, are already present in Mozambique.
Dimitri Minic: 'The Kremlin's credibility has been shaken'
For this Russian army specialist, at least part of the armed forces rallying behind the founder of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, cannot be ruled out.
Japan PM Kishida’s Africa tour lays groundwork for G7 summit, as China and Russia concerns loom large
While the impact of Kishida’s tour is ‘marginal, it can still send ‘a message of solidarity’ that it intends to take the continent’s concerns seriously. Getting the African countries to take active measures against Russia will be difficult if they are not offered strong incentives in exchange, one analyst notes.
France's Macron Set For Four-nation Tour Of Africa
President Emmanuel Macron kicks off a tour of Central Africa on Wednesday in a diplomatic drive to test out a new "responsible relationship" with the continent as anti-French sentiment runs high in some former colonies
How Rwanda Became Africa’s Policeman
From Benin to Mozambique, President Paul Kagame is flexing his small country’s military muscle—and transforming the continent’s security landscape.
Japan’s Africa aid rivals China in terms of ‘quality over quantity’: analysts
Japan has been investing in the continent for longer than China and applies international standards to its infrastructure financing, analysts said. Its pockets may not be as deep, but its support of good governance and democratic principles makes it a tempting development partner for African states.
Solar power shines through after a slow start in Africa
The case for the renewable energy source is becoming clearer on the ‘sun continent’
Africa-France: Can Macron’s ‘new partnership’ succeed?
Africa has occupied a significant place in Emmanuel Macron’s political agenda but he will need more than fine speeches to change the longstanding paternalist image of France on the continent.
C.Africa's Leap Into Bitcoin Leaves Its People Bemused
In the Central African Republic (CAR), nine out of 10 people do not have internet, and only one in seven has electricity -- that is, when there are no power cuts.
Yet the CAR has just followed El Salvador in adopting bitcoin as legal tender, a currency that requires access to the net to be bought, sold or used.
EU Winds Down Military Training Operations in Mali
The European bloc is involved in two training missions in Mali – the EUTM and the EUCAP – to coach soldiers and police.
Why France is losing its 'Great Game' in western Africa
The British used to call it "the Great Game" — the military and political jockeying of great powers in the late 19th century in Afghanistan, India and the areas around southern Russia. France, too, has played its "Great Game" in western Africa for 150 years. Now it's losing. Islamist extremists are winning.
France girds for long fight against Islamists in Africa's Sahel
Days before French President Emmanuel Macron visited West and Central African leaders this week to talk security, Islamist fighters sent a defiant message -- a suicide attack on the headquarters of a five-nation force that is supposed to take the lead in fighting terrorism in the region.
Last year Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger agreed to set up the 5,000-member force dubbed the "G5 Sahel", urged along by pledges of training and support from France.
China, Russia rise in CAR as Western influence shrinks
Russia and China are muscling their way into the Central African Republic as Western clout in the mineral-rich, strategically important nation seems to wane, analysts say.
Day zero for Zuma? South Africa's president negotiates departure
It's a watershed moment for South Africa and the party of Nelson Mandela. The leadership of the African National Congress is expected to force out Jacob Zuma. Will the president go quietly? Can he negotiate a deal in the face of long-looming corruption allegations?
Angola awaits successor to long-ruling leader Dos Santos
Angola is expected to formally announce the end of President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos' controversial 37-year rule Saturday, and name a successor to lead the ailing African oil-producing country.
China looking to learn from France about Africa
Trade is the focus of a three-day visit to France that Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang started on Tuesday. Beyond deals with French companies, China and France are expected to sign an agreement on joint infrastructure projects in Asia and Africa.
France, Turkey, and Shifting Balance - Léo Péria-Peigné
The interview explores France’s withdrawal from Africa, its strategic pivot to NATO’s eastern flank, and the complex dynamics with Turkey. It also touches on Europe’s military dilemmas, the growing strength of Turkey’s defense industry, and the limits of French influence in the Middle East. A clear-eyed look at where Europe stands—and where it may be heading.
Doing Politics in African Cities Actors, Causes and Forms of Urban Social Mobilization
From Maputo to Nairobi and from Lagos to Dakar: recently, African cities have been the theatre of mobilizations by groups of young protesters.
Replay of Ifri's webinar held on April 17, 2025.
What is the state of democracy in Africa?
An interview with Olusegun Obasanjo, former President of Nigeria.
Sanctions on African countries: what impact?
What is the role of international NGOs regarding the sanctions process?
South Africa : internal dissensions within the ANC
How to explain the decline of the ANC during the last election? Why 2017 is a decisive year for the ANC? How to explain the student protests during the past two years?
Ifri, a foundation recognized as being of public utility, relies largely on private donors – companies and individuals – to guarantee its sustainability and intellectual independence. Through their funding, donors help maintain the Institute's position among the world's leading think tanks. By benefiting from an internationally recognized network and expertise, donors refine their understanding of geopolitical risk and its consequences on global politics and the economy. In 2026, Ifri partners with over 90 French and international companies and organizations.
East and Central Africa Observatory
The East and Central Africa Observatory is a 3-year research project (2023-2025) that Ifri is carrying out jointly with the French Institute of Research in Africa (IFRA) in Nairobi for the French Ministry of Defense, and more specifically its International Relations and Strategy Division (DGRIS). This observatory focuses on the main political, security and geopolitical developments taking place in the geographical areas covered by itself. This is achieved through the regular production of research notes, in English or French and the organization of an annual seminar around a key theme. For our research notes and conferences, we call on internationally acknowledged experts in the topics covered. This Observatory began in 2016, under the title of Observatory of Central and Southern Africa within Ifri's Sub-Saharan Africa Center. 55 notes were drafted between 2016 and 2020.
Sub-Saharan Africa Center
Founded in 2007, Ifri's Sub-Saharan Africa center produces an in-depth analysis of the African continent and its security, geopolitical, political and socio-economic dynamics (in particular the phenomenon of urbanization). The Center aims to be both, through various publications and conferences, a space for disseminating analyzes intended for the media and the public but also a decision-making tool for political and economic actors with regard to the continent.
The center produces analyses for various organizations such as the Ministry of the Armed Forces, the Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the French Development Agency (AFD) and even for various private supports. Its researchers are regularly interviewed by parliamentary committees.
The organization of events of various formats complements the production of analyzes by bringing the different spheres of the public space (academic, political, media, economic and civil society) to meet and exchange analytical tools and visions of the continent. The Sub-Saharan Africa Center regularly welcomes political leaders from different sub-Saharan African countries.