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Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East

Studies
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Proliferation Papers
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Proliferation Papers, No. 26, Spring 2009
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Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East
Corps analyses

Unstable dynamics surrounding Iran's nuclear program may be pushing the world closer to the use of nuclear weapons than is generally realized - perhaps closer than any time since the Cuban missile crisis. This paper proposes a number of near- and longer-term scenarios to illustrate the ways in which structural uncertainties in the regional interstate bargaining framework could result in the use of nuclear weapons.

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978-2-86592-495-0

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Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East

Decoration
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Security Studies Center
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Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.

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French Forward Deterrence: What Is in It for the Baltic States?

Date de publication
25 May 2026
Accroche

For what may be its most significant stress test since the end of the Cold War, European deterrence is under strain. Russia’s war against Ukraine has demonstrated Moscow’s willingness to use force and its ability to combine conventional operations with nuclear signalling, coercive rhetoric, and hybrid actions. At the same time, the gradual deterioration of transatlantic relations has revived concerns about the reliability of extended deterrence.

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Europe at the Crossroads of DefTech: Rethinking the European Defense Innovation Ecosystem

Date de publication
16 February 2026
Accroche

“The way I look at Iron Dome is as the ultimate manifestation of the future of the United States’ role in future conflicts, which is not to be the world police, but to be the world gun store,” said Palmer Luckey in November 2023. Luckey is the founder of Anduril, one of the most prominent DefTech companies. The ambition is clear: to participate in global rearmament by capitalizing on the quality of American innovations and to dominate the arms market—at least in the West—through technological mastery.

Alexandre PAPAEMMANUEL Laure de ROUCY-ROCHEGONDE
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Taking the Pulse: Is France’s New Nuclear Doctrine Ambitious Enough?

Date de publication
12 March 2026
Accroche

French President Emmanuel Macron has unveiled his country’s new nuclear doctrine. Are the changes he has made enough to reassure France’s European partners in the current geopolitical context?

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Macron Offers a Promising Vision for Nuclear Deterrence in Europe

Date de publication
11 March 2026
Accroche

Macron’s concept of ‘forward deterrence’ offers a distinctly European approach to nuclear deterrence.

Héloïse FAYET Darya DOLZIKOVA

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Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East
James A. RUSSELL, « Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East », Studies, Proliferation Papers, Ifri, 18 March 2009.
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Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East

Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East