In France, foreign policy falls within what is commonly referred to as the president of the republic’s domaine réservé (reserved domain). Since taking office, President Emmanuel Macron has never openly acknowledged any influence of public opinion on his foreign policy. Instead, he has sought to persuade the French public of the relevance of his decisions, particularly on sensitive issues. It must be noted that opinion polls cannot demonstrate that policy shapes public opinion, nor, conversely, that public opinion shapes policy: correlation does not imply causation. Three examples illustrate the unclear link between public opinion and French foreign policy.

Let’s consider first the case of Ukraine: Macron was well aware that sanctions against Russia would weigh on his fellow citizens’ purchasing power and risk backlash. Nevertheless, he chose to uphold the policy, explained it publicly, and the French populace repeatedly expressed clear support for the sanctions, though that support eventually declined.

Another example is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which is arguably the most mobilizing issue in international affairs among the French public. Since the Six-Day War in 1967, a pro-Palestinian movement has emerged that has sought to influence French foreign policy.  

Large demonstrations have accompanied every major outbreak of violence in the Middle East, including in the aftermath of the October 7, 2023, attack. For many years, numerous opinion polls have shown that a majority of French citizens support the creation of a Palestinian state. This leads one to ask if Macron ultimately yielded to public opinion when he recognized the State of Palestine in September 2025.

However, the reality is more complex. On the one hand, the president put forward other arguments to justify the recognition. On the other hand, at the time he announced his intention to proceed with recognition—while the war in Gaza raged and Israelis remained hostages of Hamas—a poll showed that only 22 percent of the French public supported immediate and unconditional recognition.

A final example deserves mention: France’s opposition to the free trade agreement between the European Union and Southern Common Market (Mercosur). The prospect of the agreement triggered farmers’ protests and generated widespread opposition among the French public. Macron’s position appeared to evolve over time. He sought to reach a more favorable agreement and succeeded in obtaining several concessions from the European Commission that negotiated on behalf of the EU Members States. Nevertheless, in January 2026, he decided to vote against its signature, citing “unanimous political opposition” in both the National Assembly and the Senate. In this case, only the French president can answer the question of whether he yielded to public opinion.

As Macron’s second and final term draws to a close in the coming months, it is not clear that his foreign policy choices have been significantly shaped by domestic public opinion. Other factors—a combination of national interests and values—have probably played a more important role in shaping the president’s stance on the international stage.

> Read the article on the Council on Foreign Relations' website