From Protest to Power? The AfD Ahead of the Eastern State Elections
The September state elections will test the AfD’s transition from protest force to potential governing power amid growing political fragmentation and dissatisfaction with Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his coalition. While firmly established in eastern Germany, the AfD is also gaining ground in the west, raising questions about coalition-building and the future direction of German politics.
The state elections on September 6 in Saxony-Anhalt and on September 20, 2026, in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania carry significant federal implications. They will serve as a credibility test for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s current CDU-SPD coalition.
1. The AfD is emerging as the leading political force in Germany’s eastern states. With the possibility of an far-right party taking the leadership of a state government for the first time in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD is no longer seen merely as a protest party, but as a political force capable of governing.
2. Forming stable majorities is becoming increasingly difficult, given that no other political party is willing to enter into a coalition with the AfD.
3. The CDU could also be forced to reconsider its decision to rule out any cooperation with the radical left-wing party Die Linke, which could play a pivotal role in these elections.
4. The implications of these elections extend far beyond the three states concerned. An AfD victory would be perceived by Germany’s European partners as a major political signal and as a personal setback for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his CDU-SPD coalition.
Jeanette Süß is a researcher at the Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), working in particular on the European Union and the Franco-German relations.
- This publication is available in French (pdf): "Entre protestation et conquête du pouvoir : l'AfD à l'approche des élections régionales à l'Est".
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IFRI-Briefings, 3. September 2026
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From Protest to Power? The AfD Ahead of the Eastern State Elections
Jeanette SÜß
Research Fellow, Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa), Ifri
The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa)
The Study Committee on Franco-German Relations (Cerfa) was created in 1954 by an inter-governmental agreement between the Federal Republic of Germany and France, in order to raise awareness of Germany in France and analyze Franco-German relations, including in their European and international dimensions. In its conferences and seminars, which bring together experts, political leaders, senior decision-makers and representatives of civil society from both countries, Cerfa develops the Franco-German debate and stimulates political proposals. It regularly publishes studies through two collections: Cerfa notes and studies as well as Franco-German visions.
Cerfa maintains close relations with the network of German foundations and think tanks. In addition to its research and debate activities, Cerfa promotes the emergence of a new Franco-German generation through original cooperation programs. This is how in 2021-2022, Cerfa led a program on multilateralism with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Paris. This program is aimed at young professionals from both countries interested in the issues of multilateralism in the context of their activities. It covered a wide range of themes relating to multilateralism, such as international trade, health, human rights and migration, non-proliferation and disarmament. Previously, Cerfa had participated in the Franco-German future dialogue, co-led with the DGAP from 2007 to 2020, and supported by the Robert Bosch Foundation and the Daniel Vernet group (formerly the Franco-German Reflection Group) which was founded in 2014 upon the initiative of the Genshagen Foundation.
France-Germany: Overcoming Differences to Strengthen European Sovereignty
The Franco-German “reset” launched with Friedrich Merz’s appointment as Chancellor in May 2025 and given concrete form at the Franco-German Council of Ministers (FGCM) in Toulon in August 2025 was intended to address the structural challenges affecting the bilateral relationship. Yet it is clear that these ambitions have only been partially translated into concrete action. Since the beginning of 2026, Franco-German relations have entered a phase in which short-term challenges have combined with deeper divergences over priorities, policy approaches, and strategic culture.
Under construction: Europe’s economic repositioning in a fragmented international order
„Under Destruction“– this was this year’s motto at the Munich Security Conference. A motto that applies both to security and economy in an increasingly fragile international system. In 2024, Mario Draghi’s report on the EU’s competitiveness rang the alarm bell: Europe is slipping behind the US and China, European companies struggle with Brussels' bureaucracy, and the internal market is too fragmented. However, two years later only about 15 % of his recommendations were implemented: the wake-up call was not heard.
Germany in the Shadow of the United States, Russia, and China – Systemic Paradigm Shifts
Since reunification, Germany has built its prosperity on an international order based on free trade, multilateralism, and geopolitical stability. This model relied on three relationships considered complementary: U.S. military protection, Russian energy supplies, and economic integration with China. For several decades, Berlin viewed these interdependencies as factors contributing to peace, growth, and security.
France and EU Enlargement: From Strategic Hesitation to a Geopolitical Shift
Paris has come a long way in its approach to enlarging the European Union. However, French support remains fragile, due in part to a lack of public support.