It is a classic exercise to imagine what today’s world would be like if all satellites were shut down. The exact consequences of such a scenario, which is not unlikely given the inherent vulnerability of space systems to natural, accidental and deliberate interferences, are however difficult...
European strategic autonomy
Europe is faced with a degradation of its security environment, which affects all of the neighboring regional theaters and occurs along the entire conflict spectrum (Russian strategic resurgence, instability and civil wars around the Mediterranean Sea, changing patterns of jihadist terrorism, etc.), and with a growing uncertainty regarding the future commitment to European security of two critical allies, the United States and the United Kingdom. In this context, this program provides analytical support to the renewed European interest for defense, and to the attainment of the goal of strategic autonomy, as identified in the EU’s Global Strategy.
Its aims are:
- to provide substance to the concept of “European strategic autonomy” while contributing to the emergence of a European strategic thought on the use of force in the 21st century;
- to add to the ongoing debate on the degree of ambition for European countries in terms of strategic autonomy;
- to assess the capacity, in Europe, to generate military power, now and up to 2030-2040;
- to come up with a comprehensive overview of the existing capacities as well as the lacking areas, as of today and until 2030-2040 (trends, areas and degrees of dependence, etc.);
- to provide recommendations on key lines of effort, in terms of defense investment, operational and industrial cooperation as well as capability development.
European Strategic Autonomy: Balancing Ambition and Responsibility Éditoriaux de l'Ifri, November 2018
For decades, Europe has been trying to chart a path away from the military competition and strategic rivalries that brought it to ruins so many times in history.
The Erosion of Strategic Stability and the Future of Arms Control in Europe Proliferation Papers, No. 60, November 2018
The instruments of cooperative security created during and since the Cold War to foster mutual confidence and reduce the risks of war, inadvertent escalation, and arms races, in and around Europe, have come under increasing strain.
Northern Europe’s Strategic Challenge from Russia: What Political and Military Responses? Russie.Nei.Visions, No. 111, Ifri, October 2018
The return of more conflictual relations between Russia and the West following Russia’s intervention in Eastern Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea has led to a deterioration in the strategic environment for Northern European countries, particularly in the Baltic Sea Region and the Arctic.
The 1970s were a decade of anti-war movements. Willy Brandt received the Nobel Peace Prize for his détente policy toward the Eastern Bloc – and West German defense spending peaked at 3.13 percent of GDP in 1975. Clearly, those days are long gone.
Tailored Assurance: Balancing Deterrence and Disarmament in Responding to NATO-Russia Tension Proliferation Papers, No. 59, July 2018
The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) called for tailoring assurance across America’s allies, including NATO, as part of an overall deterrence and assurance strategy.
In light of transatlantic tensions and a deteriorated security environment, European security affairs are at the crossroads.
Washington Should Help Europe Achieve 'Strategic Autonomy', Not Fight It War On The Rocks, April 12, 2018
In 2016, the European Union issued its Global Strategy, the Union’s latest foreign and security policy strategy document. The strategy “nurtures the ambition of strategic autonomy for the European Union”. American policymakers’ feelings about these aspirations are, to say the least,...
Saving Transatlantic Cooperation and the Iran Nuclear Deal. A View from Europe and the United States SWP Comment 2018/C 09, February 2018
Transatlantic differences over the future of the Iran nuclear deal – or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) of July 2015 – are damaging a nuclear accord that all parties, except the United States, see as delivering on its purpose. They also increase the risk of Washington and...
France, Germany, and the Quest for European Strategic Autonomy: Franco-German Defence Cooperation in A New Era Notes du Cerfa, No. 141, Ifri, December 2017
How can France and Germany contribute to reaching the goal of European strategic autonomy? This key question has been guiding the work with the present report. In the light of a more demanding security environment, but also a rare momentum for further European integration, Berlin and...
France, Germany, and the Quest for European Strategic Autonomy. Franco-German Defence Cooperation in a New Era
In the light of a more demanding security environment, but also a rare momentum for further European integration, Berlin and Paris are challenged to take their security and defence cooperation to the next level, bilaterally as well as in the EU. Progress in Franco-German security and...
The Organization for Security and Co-operation (OSCE) used to carry the promise of a paneuropean security order. It is the only Euroatlantic security organization in which the “West” and Russia can cooperate on an equal footing.
This expert seminar gathered officials from national ministries of defense, national delegations to NATO, officials from NATO, the EDA, and the EEAS, as well as experts. The objective was to discuss the ambitions of the framework nations concept for framework nations as well as for partner...
This expert seminar aims to address Franco-British defence cooperation in the broader context. It is organised by the Institut français des relations internationales and the Centre for European Reform.
This expert seminar focused on the planning processes within the European Defence Agency and NATO. It gathered officials from NATO, the EDA, the EEAS, national delegations to the EU and NATO, as well as experts.
Germany's unilateral decision to halt all shipments of military equipment to Saudi Arabia has stopped 10's of billions of dollars worth of orders of joint European arms exports, bringing the question of deep arms export cooperation among European partners into high relief.
Nicolas Sarkozy used to promote himself as a transatlanticist or anglophile French president. Emmanuel Macron seems to have taken this approach a step further. Macron appears to have taken upon France and himself the responsibility of not allowing Britain and more importantly, the United...
The offer of active military support to France in Syria or in the Sahel by several European member states is likely to overshadow the absence of meaningful commitment from others. On balance, the picture will not be too disheartening for supporters of the EU: its foreign and security policy...
L'Allemagne a annoncé qu'elle allait publier en 2016 un nouveau Livre blanc sur la défense. Cet exercice pourrait illustrer que les signaux positifs, mais dispersés, lancés par l'Allemagne depuis un peu plus d'un an auguraient d'un réel changement de posture stratégique, gage d'une reprise...
Many national perspectives published in this series share a similar analysis of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP): it is underperforming and needs to be adapted. However, the...