Search on Ifri.org

About Ifri

Frequent searches

Suggestions

Return to the East: the Russian Threat and the French Pivot to Europe's Eastern Flank

Studies
|
Date de publication
|
Référence taxonomie collections
Focus Stratégique
Image de couverture de la publication
Return to the East: the Russian Threat and the French Pivot to Europe's Eastern Flank
Accroche

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has flung Europe’s Eastern flank into a new phase of strategic confrontation. It has had a major effect on France’s position, which was previously somewhat timid, leading it to significantly reinforce its deterrence and defense posture in support of the collective defense of Europe, in the name of strategic solidarity and the protection of its security interests.

Image principale
January 29, 2023, in RUTJA (ESTONIA). French, British and Estonian soldiers from BattleGroup eFP participated in the BALTIC HAWK mission
January 29, 2023, in RUTJA (ESTONIA). French, British and Estonian soldiers from BattleGroup eFP participated in the BALTIC HAWK mission
© Thomas COLLANGE / armée de Terre / Défense
Corps analyses
This U-turn is not taking place in a historical vacuum, but must be understood in the light of a long history that still influences perceptions of French policy in the region. After having been a key security player in Central and Eastern Europe between the wars, France gradually turned away from this region, first in the context of the Cold War, and then from 1990 onwards, due to differing perceptions of the strategic environment.
 
Throughout the latter period, France’s concerns about antagonizing Russia, and its complex relationship with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), inevitably led to growing mutual distrust with its eastern flank allies. Although the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of war in the Donbas prompted the French government to gradually shift its position by participating in NATO’s enhanced air policing and forward land presence, it was not until 2022 that France fully assumed the responsibilities its eastern allies expected it to take on.
 
Since 2022, the Russian offensive in Ukraine has led France to fundamentally rethink its approach to collective security on the eastern flank. There have been three main changes. The first is a hardening in tone, reflected in both increased tensions with Russia, and destabilizing actions by Russia against France. The second is the implementation of an active policy of aid to Ukraine, reflected at the military level in legacy equipment transfers, on-demand production supplies, and training of Ukrainian armed forces. The third change concerns France’s approach to the defense of Europe in the broadest sense, through the launch of a new European Political Community, but also its political reinvestment in NATO and the emphasis on its fundamental role in collective defense.
 
Decoration

Available in:

Regions and themes

ISBN / ISSN

979-10-373-0879-5

Share

Download the full analysis

This page contains only a summary of our work. If you would like to have access to all the information from our research on the subject, you can download the full version in PDF format.

Return to the East: the Russian Threat and the French Pivot to Europe's Eastern Flank

Decoration
Author(s)
Photo
Élie TENENBAUM

Élie TENENBAUM

Intitulé du poste

Director of Ifri’s Security Studies Center

Photo
Amélie ZIMA

Amélie ZIMA

Intitulé du poste
Image principale
 A soldier watching a sunset on an armored infantry fighting vehicle
Security Studies Center
Accroche centre

Heir to a tradition dating back to the founding of Ifri, the Security Studies Center provides public and private decision-makers as well as the general public with the keys to understanding power relations and contemporary modes of conflict as well as those to come. Through its positioning at the juncture of politics and operations, the credibility of its civil-military team and the wide distribution of its publications in French and English, the Center for Security Studies constitutes in the French landscape of think tanks a unique center of research and influence on the national and international defense debate.

Image principale
Group of kamkazza combat drones against the background of sky and clouds, top view, 3d rendering. Concept: war in Ukraine, drone attack.
Observatory on Future Conflicts
Accroche centre

The Observatory of Future Conflicts is a research program carried out by the French Institute of International Relations and the Foundation for Strategic Research on behalf of the three army headquarters aimed at studying developments in tensions and armaments at the horizon 2040 in a transversal perspective, taking into account the issues of each army.

Image principale
T-72B3 battle tank, NATO
European & Transatlantic Security
Accroche centre

The European & Transatlantic Security Program aims to contribute to the strategic debate by developing analyses around three main axes: European defense and the security architecture of the European continent, institutional and strategic links between the Treaty Organization of North Atlantic (NATO) and the European Union (EU), as well as the evolution of the transatlantic relationship.

Image principale

Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Temptations. Lessons Learned from Regional Instability

Date de publication
11 September 2025
Accroche

Saudi Arabia’s integration in the international arena and regional stability, notably through reducing its dependence on fossil energies, are crucial elements for the success of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030, the Crown Prince’s top priority. However, Mohammed bin Salman’s declarations in 2018 and 2021, indicating that “if Iran develops a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible”, combined with the recent strikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, do not bode well for the future of the Kingdom, the region and the non-proliferation regime at large.

Nour EID
Image principale

The Future of Air Superiority. Command of the Air in High Intensity Warfare

Date de publication
24 January 2025
Accroche

Air superiority, understood as control of the air, is a cornerstone of the Western art of warfare. It is a decisive condition, albeit not sufficient by itself, to achieve military victory, as it enables the concentration of air power toward the achievement of wider strategic objectives and protects other components from unbearable attrition levels. It is best achieved through the offensive use of air power in a joint effort to neutralize the enemy’s air power.

Image principale

Europe Uncovered?

Date de publication
09 September 2025
Accroche

As Russia continues to threaten Europe, the Trump administration is making no secret of its desire to withdraw—at least partially—from the defense of the Old
Continent in order to focus on strategic competition with China. It is thus putting pressure on its European allies to increase their investment in the military sector. The NATO Summit in The Hague in June 2025 resulted in ambitious commitments by member states to increase their defense spending.

Élie TENENBAUM Guillaume GARNIER
Image principale

How should Britain and France cooperate to realise the Northwood Declaration?

Date de publication
18 July 2025
Accroche

During his state visit to the United Kingdom (UK) last week, Emmanuel Macron, President of France, signed a joint declaration with Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, on nuclear cooperation between Britain and France. The Northwood Declaration highlights that while both countries’ nuclear arsenals remain sovereign, cooperation on nuclear deterrence can ‘contribute significantly’ to the security of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the Euro-Atlantic region.

Page image credits
January 29, 2023, in RUTJA (ESTONIA). French, British and Estonian soldiers from BattleGroup eFP participated in the BALTIC HAWK mission
© Thomas COLLANGE / armée de Terre / Défense

How can this study be cited?

Image de couverture de la publication
Return to the East: the Russian Threat and the French Pivot to Europe's Eastern Flank
Return to the East: the Russian Threat and the French Pivot to Europe's Eastern Flank, from Ifri by
Copy
Image de couverture de la publication
Return to the East: the Russian Threat and the French Pivot to Europe's Eastern Flank

Return to the East: the Russian Threat and the French Pivot to Europe's Eastern Flank